Paetongtarn Shinawatra's political ascension as the country's 31st prime minister is unprecedented in Thai history -- it is also a moment of reckoning for the country's political future. Her father, Thaksin, wasted no time recapturing the spotlight, positioning himself as the Nostradamus who knew everything just days after her official appointment. His demeanour and words have reminded all Thais of the dangers inherent in dynastic politics. Will it impact her ability to govern independently and effectively?
Thaksin could not hide his exuberance over his daughter's rise. He treated her new position as a personal trophy of the Shinawatras rather than a victory for the Thai people. That should not surprise anyone, given Thaksin's long history of wielding power and influence in Thai politics. Seventeen years in exile has actually hardened his political instincts and vengeance.
However, before the official government policy announcement, his overt engagement in Ms Paetongtarn's perceived role raises serious questions about her leadership. A similar question that was asked to former prime minister Srettha Thavisin has also resurfaced. Is Ms Paetongtarn truly at the helm, or is she merely a figurehead, with Thaksin pulling the strings behind the scenes? In his past year in office, Mr Srettha proved little more than a figurehead himself.
Thaksin's public appearances during last week's dinner talk, where he shared his vision on the stage, underscore the troubling dynamics at play. As it turned out, he talked and answered questions for over two hours and seemed to be blissfully basking in the media limelight. He literally just gave a comprehensive roadmap for Ms Paetongtarn's government.
For the past week, Thaksin and Ms Paetongtarn have been trying to play down their relations by presenting their dynamic as father-daughter relations and promising there would not be krom-ngum or krom-krong, meaning "dominate" or "control". Ms Paetongtarn reiterated that she "can think for herself". At the talk, Thaksin said it was his duty to help his daughter with ideas and suggestions. Ultimately, he professed that the decisions lie with Ms Paetongtarn and her cabinet. Will she or can she be swayed off track?
Only time will tell if this blurring of family and political lines is a mere illusion. Otherwise, it could be a fault line undermining her newly formed government. Most importantly, it would seriously endanger the country's fabric of democratic governance.
In the coming weeks, Ms Paetongtarn will face a series of formidable tests for her leadership. She must form a new coalition government, deliver a policy speech in parliament, and represent Thailand on the international stage at several meetings.
The postponement of the Bay of Bengal Multi-Sectoral Science Technology and Economic Cooperation (Bimstec) summit, scheduled for Sept 3-4 in Bangkok, points to the diplomatic uncertainties she faces. It also delayed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's official visit to Thailand, which was to precede the Bimstec summit. These developments show that she has yet to establish her authority and readiness to manage the challenges of international diplomacy.
With the 79th United Nations General Assembly set to kick off in the middle of next month, Ms Paetongtarn must decide whether to attend and introduce herself to the global community in New York as Asia's youngest female prime minister. Indeed, she has an excellent opportunity and platform to demonstrate that she is more than just Thaksin's daughter. She can show she has what it takes to lead today's Thailand.
The overseas challenges will continue into October, when she is scheduled to attend the double 44th and 45th Asean-related summits in Vientiane, Laos. These gatherings of nearly 20 global leaders will be imperative to establish her credibility in the region and beyond. Leaders from Asean members, China, Japan, South Korea, India, the US, Russia, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Timor Leste, and the United Nations will converge at the summits. Later, Ms Paetongtarn will also have to visit other Asean member countries.
Another big test that awaits her is the crisis in Myanmar. Former prime minister Srettha did not pay Myanmar the attention it deserved; he was seen pushing forward his business agenda and throwing a series of "roadshows".
With the worsening situation in Myanmar, the new government needs to recalibrate the country's policy toward this neighbour. Earlier this year, Thaksin, even wearing a paroled prisoner hat, tried but failed to craft a role as a peace broker when he approached ethnic armed rebels.
The situation on the western front has already impacted Thailand's border security and stability. Without clear and comprehensive policies and action plans, the Thai-Myanmar border is considered a time bomb with the continued influx of irregular migrants and active transnational crime syndicates.
Thaksin's return to Thai politics has already reignited his vast network and influence in more ways than one. His long wishlist concerning his vision for Thailand will likely continue to shape Ms Paetongtarn's agenda. This situation is risky for her due to Thaksin's political power and manoeuvring.
It is doubtful that the prime minister can rein in her super dad. Her premiership could be short-lived if she fails to stay independent and maintain her stewardship. For the time being, Thaksin has been skilful in masquerading his multiple roles as a father, an adviser, a de facto party leader, and a former prime minister whenever he sees fit.
Ms Paetongtarn's future still faces unpredictable challenges emanating from her cabinet members, of whom she has very little knowledge. It will be difficult for her to run the government and keep the cabinet members in check on her own.
Finally, Thaksin's craving for publicity could also unintentionally overshadow her presence. As such, she must find a way to balance his influence with her style of leadership. The omen of dynastic politics looms large. Thailand's future is on a precipice.