Deck reshuffle carries risks for Thaksin
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Deck reshuffle carries risks for Thaksin

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Ex-House Speaker Chuan Leekpai and former commerce minister Jurin Laksanawisit attend a Democratic Party meeting on Dec 9 last year. Nutthawat Wichieanbut
Ex-House Speaker Chuan Leekpai and former commerce minister Jurin Laksanawisit attend a Democratic Party meeting on Dec 9 last year. Nutthawat Wichieanbut

It was a classic case of killing two birds with one stone. That was the incorporation of the Democrats into the Pheu Thai-led coalition to substitute for the fragmented Palang Pracharath Party.

The chief architect of this feat was none other than former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the apparent de facto leader of Pheu Thai. It was he who announced the government coalition is open to all parties, including the Democrats, especially the "old guard", whom he has always held in contempt.

The first bird was the Palang Pracharath Party, with its leader, Gen Prawit Wongsuwon in particular, who was accused by Pheu Thai MPs of persistently scheming against the Pheu Thai Party for standing in the way of his dream of becoming Thailand's prime minister.

The fall of prime minister Srettha Thavisin on Aug 14 after the Constitutional Court found him guilty of lacking "evident integrity" was suspected to have been orchestrated by Gen Prawit.

He allegedly pulled the strings behind a group of 40 MPs who petitioned the court to rule on Mr Srettha's ethical standards for appointing a convict, Phichit Chuenban, as PM's Office Minister.

The Democrat Party is the second bird. The relationship between the Democrats and the Pheu Thai Party for the past two decades has been anything but peaceful and friendly.

It was marred with street protests between their proxies, the red-shirt and yellow-shirt movements, as manifested in the bloody crackdown of red-shirt protesters by the government of prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva in 2010 and the "Bangkok Shutdown" in 2013–14 by the People's Democratic Reform Committee, led by former Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban. The shutdown itself culminated in a coup in 2014 that ousted prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

Reactions to the Democrat Party's inclusion in the government coalition were swift among the "old guard" of the party. Former party leader Chuan Leekpai voiced his strong opposition to the Democrats' embracing Pheu Thai. A longtime party member, former MP Sirichoke Sopha, quit the party.

Apparently, Mr Chuan is obsessed with Thaksin's remarks, made over a decade ago, that his government would not fund development in the provinces where most voters voted against the Pheu Thai Party. He said such a remark, apparently aimed at southerners by a government leader, was unacceptable.

Mr Chuan warned the decision of the party's executive committee to work with Pheu Thai will affect the Democrat Party's base in the south. But he is confident that the party will not become extinct.

The fact is that the glorious days of the Democrats are over and the party is in steady decline whether it is included in the coalition alliance or not. Hence, the decision to bury the hatchet by the incumbent party leadership, led by Chalermchai Sri-on, appears to be driven purely by vested interest. Talk of people's benefits are mere rhetoric.

The Pheu Thai Party, too, will have to pay a price for the inclusion of the Democrats, as some of the party's supporters, particularly the hardcore red shirts, still hold grudges against the Democrats for the crackdown on red-shirt protesters by the Democrat-led government in 2010.

At least 99 people were killed in the violent protest, and several buildings in Bangkok and provincial halls were torched, allegedly by red-shirt protesters in retaliation against the crackdown.

But the price to be paid is worth the gamble. Besides widening the rift within the Democrats, the inclusion of the Democrats in the alliance can be viewed as the first major step towards reconciliation with Pheu Thai. It will be a historic political turning point if the reconciliation is for real and not just a calculated scheme by Thaksin to weaken the Democrats.

Numerically, the Pheu Thai-led coalition now commands 314 votes in the House against 178 opposition votes, giving the new government a comfortable majority in the House.

These comprise the 141 votes of Pheu Thai; 70 of Bhumjaithai; 20 of the Thamanat Prompow faction in the Palang Pracharath Party; 36 of the United Thai Nation Party; 21 from the Democrats; 10 from Chart Thai Pattana; nine from Prachachart; three from Chart Pattana; two from Pheu Thai Ruam Palang; and one each from Palang Sangkhom Mai and Thongthee Thai.

Although the opposition commands 178 votes, this is unlikely to pose any real threat to the government. The People's Party, successor of the now-dissolved Move Forward Party, which has 143 votes, has vowed it will not work with the Palang Pracharath Party because of its links with the coup makers.

Meanwhile, the Thai Sang Thai Party with its five MPs cannot be trusted, either, after they voted in support of Paetongtarn Shinawatra's prime ministerial candidacy on Aug 16 in defiance of their party.

When viewed in this context, the Pheu Thai-led coalition should have a smooth run of the country and in parliament and should be able to stay for its remaining term in office.

The real threat to the coalition's stability is not from the weak opposition, but from within -- that is Thaksin himself.

His open interference in government affairs, from allegedly dictating the government's policies to the day-to-day running of the administration, will put his own daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn, and her administration at great risk.

Political enemies are around, lurking in the dark with knives held behind their backs, ready to strike when an opportunity presents itself. Sections 28 and 29 of the Political Parties Act regarding outside interference in the affairs of a party with its serious penalties, including the dissolution of a party, can be weaponised against the government and Thaksin.

The big question is whether Thaksin can restrain himself, now rather than later, to save his daughter if not himself.

Veera Prateepchaikul is former editor, Bangkok Post.

Veera Prateepchaikul

Former Editor

Former Bangkok Post Editor, political commentator and a regular columnist at Post Publishing.

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