The upcoming annual military reshuffle is being watched by political pundits and society because it will happen during the tenure of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, a daughter of former PM Thaksin and a niece of former PM Yingluck.
Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai Party government was ousted in a coup in 2006, while Yingluck's Pheu Thai government suffered the same fate in 2014.
In Thailand, the military has been central to the political landscape. For over half of a century, the Thai military has played a pivotal yet inappropriate role in overthrowing civilian-elected governments.
Despite global pressure to prevent such history from repeating itself, no one dares to write off the possibility that the military may stage a coup once more. To help prevent this, government officials can only promote soldiers who are loyal and place them in strategic positions.
This year, the reported nomination of Gen Pana Klaewplodthuk, the current army chief-of-staff, to succeed army chief Gen Charoenchai Hintao has raised many eyebrows. As a member of the elite "red-rim" soldiers fraternity, also known as the Royal Guards, Gen Pana's nomination underscores the delicate balance between loyalty, tradition and power within the military.
Similarly, in the Royal Thai Navy, the nomination of Adm Jirapol Wongwit, a special adviser, as a navy chief candidate has sparked debate over his non-traditional background, which echoes past controversies over military appointments. He graduated from a naval academy overseas and has never held the key positions typically expected of a navy chief.
For the Paetongtarn government, this reshuffle presents a dilemma. On the one hand, there is the undeniable temptation to ensure that the military leadership is aligned with the Pheu Thai government and will not stage a coup as it did in 2006 and 2014. On the other, political intervention will thwart attempts to modernise the Thai military and again politicise the military instead of the opposite.
Political intervention is not a sustainable solution to prevent coups d'etat -- a clean and effective political system is. Indeed, political intervention in military reshuffles is an example of doing a bad thing for a good reason. The best antidote to military coups is boosting professionalism in the military through a merit system, not patronage and nepotism.
Therefore, it is hoped that the upcoming military reshuffle reflects a sincere attempt to make the military a professional force.
It must be said that Caretaker Defence Minister Sutin Klungsang and the Pheu Thai-led government have launched many initiatives to modernise the barracks, and the looming reshuffle list must put the military in that direction.
After all, a professional military that is loyal to the nation rather than a specific political faction is less likely to take actions that could destabilise the government.
While securing loyal military leadership may seem necessary in the short term, the best prevention against a military coup is professional politicians who are seen as serving the public -- not their own interests.
Corruption, conflict of interest, and political conflict precipitate military coups. To prevent future military interventions, the government must promote transparency and accountability and be truly committed to the nation's interests. Without clean politics and professional politicians who truly serve the public, no one dares write off the possibility of a coup.