The People's Party did not win the Ratchaburi provincial administration organisation (PAO) chairman election last Sunday. However, this is not a major loss for the party, given the substantial increase in voter support it got for its candidate, almost threefold from the previous poll. Going forward, the party has good prospects for next year's local election and the general election of 2027.
It's the first time the party fielded a candidate for the top PAO position in this province, the first election after its predecessor, the Move Forward Party (MFP), was dissolved on Aug 7.
The candidate it backed, Chairath Sakissarapong, who challenged the incumbent, gained 175,353 votes, while the winner, Wiwat Nitikanchana, a veteran local politician, earned 242,297 votes. The margin for the two-horse race is relatively small, while voter turnout was 67%, which is phenomenally high for a local election.
Having MPs in parliament alone is not enough to become a political institution; it needs a larger support base in the provinces. Its previous efforts in PAO races in several provinces under the name of the Progressive Movement group were failures.
The People's Party aimed high in the race for Ratchaburi, a medium-sized province. Since the MFP days, the party has had no constituency MPs. But it has a particular strength, as it gained the highest votes for list MPs, 230,000 votes, or 44,11%, compared to Pheu Thai, which captured 102,000 or 19.4% in the 2023 general election.
Deep down, the party might have hoped to capitalise on a "sympathy vote" from people upset with the drastic charter court ruling that dissolved the MFP.
As we witnessed, the party used every resource in the race. All the core leaders, Thanathon Juangrungruangkit of the Progressive Movement, Pita Limjaroenrat, Chaitawat Tulathon, and Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, and several dozen MPs pitched in, running a strenuous campaign with big poll events weekly.
In fact, the so-called "orange party" has tested the water since the beginning of the year, fielding candidates for the local elections in some of the eight provinces where PAO chairman had completed their terms. They still cannot beat the incumbents, mostly those backed by ban yai -- political families with strong networks.
This is the difference between local and national politics. Obviously, the orange party, with certain clout, is doing better in the latter given its outstanding poll campaign policies and favourable election rules, i.e. advance voting, which is not possible in local elections. On the contrary, ban yai and their networks are still in control with regard to local politics, in which patron-client culture remains strong. When voters in the provinces cast their ballot, they tend to think of immediate benefits.
Before this, the Progressive Movement had little success in local elections in 42 provinces in 2020. Only 55 people were elected into PAOs in 18 provinces, and not a single candidate could take a PAO chairmanship.
It's the same situation for tambon administration organisation (TAO) poll contests, which took place in November of last year. The Progressive Movement group captured 38 out of 5,300 chairman seats. More importantly, the group could not win in the provinces surrounding Bangkok and the eastern economic zone.
As the orange party and the Thanathorn group cannot penetrate local politics through elections, it's difficult for them to build up political bases in the provinces, particularly in some northeastern provinces where the ban yai families still hold a tight grip.
Initially, Mr Thanathorn, the orange party's spiritual leader, set an eye on local politics, hoping for a "butterfly effect" that might send waves of change to the larger political sphere. A chance to work at the local level is a good start. Besides, it is a chance to showcase the efficiency of the young people who will cater to local needs in their new way to gain public trust. It's their belief that the orange party model of winning local elections will eventually erode ban yai politics. But this is a time-consuming process.
The orange party takes a firm "no" to the ban yai networking style. It has never opened the door to people from political families to win elections or build up local bases. Otherwise, it would be just another mainstream political party, depending largely on cabinet quotas from those in the old establishment. Instead, the party firmly believes in building the party as a political institution instead of attaching importance to some political families. With such a belief or ideology, the orange party has won decisive victories in the past two elections. Yet, the old establishment and ban yai politics prevented the party from running the country even though it was the poll winner in 2023.
Now, local elections are a challenge -- they must win the people's hearts to gain access to local administration agencies, both PAOs and TAOs.
As mentioned earlier, the orange party's performance in the Ratchaburi election, while a defeat, wasn't at all bad, given the increase in votes for the party. Analysts also rake in factors like the difference between local and national politics and different expectations of voters in each election. Besides, it's known that Wiwat Nitikanchana, the PAO poll winner, got help from other parties in the coalition government as they tried to block the People's Party-backed candidate. Needless to say, if the orange party gets a firm foothold in Ratchaburi, those in the ban yai circle would have a hard time.
Some analysts are wondering if the Ratchaburi poll result will affect the next political battlefield, the by-election in Phitsanulok this month to fill an MP seat left vacant after Padipat Santipada, a two-time MP, was red-carded together with MFP execs in the MFP dissolution case.
The party would have the same difficulties defending the seat given its underdog position as the opposition party against a candidate from Pheu Thai, and also blockage by those in the ban yai network. It's a political war the orange party cannot afford to lose as another defeat may have psychological effects on other battlefields next year -- PAO elections in 20 provinces where it is to confront Pheu Thai.
Meanwhile, as the Phitsanulok by-election approaches, the orange party is up for all-out political warfare.