Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, aka Madame Pae, has a unique opportunity to demonstrate her leadership to Asean colleagues and dialogue partners in Vientiane, Laos, from Oct 9-11. Her inaugural international outings with 21 different Asean-related summits will define her premiership — or the lack of it. It is a herculean task.
She has already foregone the trip to New York City for the United Nations General Assembly later this month. She had earlier planned to attend the UN Summit of the Future on Sept 22-23, right after her government's policy speech this week in parliament. Most of the leaders from the 193 member countries are scheduled to participate in the summit. Plans to fix sideline meetings for her with other leaders have been put off.
In Vientiane, her foreign policy advisers must prepare meticulously, as Asean leaders will have much to discuss regarding existing and emerging challenges. One challenge is that there are too many important events and meetings in so little time. The new, young PM will have three hours with the Asean leaders on Oct 9. The first 90 minutes will be during the opening session, which includes the opening ceremony. That would not be difficult, as all the leaders will dwell on their prepared speeches.
After a coffee break, another 90-minute session will follow. This will be the most consequential meeting as it is a retreat where she will have a tete-a-tete with her senior Asean colleagues who are much older than her, except for Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet.
Another important meeting is the East Asia Summit on the last day, Oct 11, when the leaders of 18 members meet to tackle global topics. The world's heavyweight nations, such as China, the US, Russia, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, will be attending. If she has something to say in response to their comments, she must make sure it contributes to the overall discussion.
Unlike the domestic political arena, where she could speak freely and forcefully without immediate regional and global repercussions, every word uttered in Vientiane will be carefully weighed and scrutinised, especially in English. She must not repeat what Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra did when they served as prime ministers, as they constantly made unintentional errors due to the nuances of words used. Having interpreters ready would be highly recommended. There is no room for off-the-cuff comments or casual phrasing at the summits.
During his nearly year-long tenure, former prime minister Srettha Thavisin learned harsh lessons from his loose talk on foreign affairs. He speaks English fluently and can be a remarkable, charming personality when meeting with other world leaders and top CEOs. However, he did not do well when commenting on international affairs. For instance, his comments on the Gaza crisis and, most recently, the dissolution of the Move Forward Party were unwarranted and naive.
Seven key trends are expected to dominate speeches and discussions during the plenary and bilateral sessions, as well as one scheduled retreat. Notably, the latter is off-the-record, where the leaders can speak their minds. These are the current geopolitical situation, digital transformation and cybersecurity, protectionism and trade barriers, supply chain resilience, climate crisis, socio-economic inequity and demographic changes.
She must understand the different arguments made by Asean and its members, as well as dialogue partners, on these pertinent issues. For Thailand, some challenges are extremely important to buttress the country's position. At the retreat, timely and appropriate comments and interventions are unavoidable.
Among the seven challenges, geopolitical tensions will top the agenda. Four key developments have had unsettled effects on Thailand and the broader Asean community -- the Myanmar crisis, the war in Ukraine, the Hamas-Israel conflict, and the US-China rivalry. As Myanmar's neighbour with the longest shared border, Thailand has a critical role in facilitating a peaceful resolution, and Asean members and dialogue partners have already expressed disappointment over the lack of Thai leadership on this issue. PM Paetongtarn can turn the situation around by providing clear policy measures. After all, existing Thai plans on Myanmar need forceful and coordinated implementation from inter-related agencies as well as allies and friends.
Recent domestic turmoil has affected Asean's progress, particularly in implementing the second phase of humanitarian assistance plans. Thailand has recently contributed 9 million baht to the Asean Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management (AHA Centre) to support aid programmes for affected villagers in Myanmar. Madame Pae can earn significant diplomatic points by clearly outlining what Thailand will do in the coming weeks or months to add value to the Asean Five-Point Consensus. Her counterparts in Vientiane are eager to learn what the second Pheu Thai-led government will bring to the table.
Regarding the Ukraine war, she must understand the true nature of this conflict, in which Asean members have different views and positions. Eight Asean countries supported a resolution condemning Russia's invasion, while Vietnam and Laos abstained. Singapore has been the only member imposing sanctions on Russia and vocally condemning the invasion. On the contrary, the military junta in Myanmar has openly backed Russia's action.
Thailand does not support the war and has called for a ceasefire, a goal that remains elusive. Providing humanitarian aid to all victims has been a consistent appeal from Thailand to alleviate human suffering. Despite the pressure, Thailand has maintained a non-partisan stance, fostering friendly relations with Ukraine and Russia. Bangkok's attendance at the first Peace Summit in Switzerland and its recent decision to apply for Brics membership in the same week reflect this balanced approach. As the Pheu-Thai leader, Paetongtarn also attended the Brics-related meeting in Vladivostok in June.
On the situation in Gaza, she must follow the Asean statements, which called for an end to hostilities and human suffering, including the protection and safety of Asean workers there. Thailand and the Philippines have large numbers of workers inside Israel. Under the Malaysian chair next year, the bloc's positions and perceptions will be further sharpened on the situation in the Middle East and its overall relationship with Asean.
Finally, the US-China rivalry is front and centre in current geopolitical tensions. It will also be the No.1 issue discussed at the East Asia Summit. The US has been the dominant power for the past 70 years, but China's rising power and influence are reshaping the global landscape. The world is now being labelled multipolar, much to the chagrin of the power that is in Washington.
Like the rest of the world, Thailand finds itself caught in the crossfire. However, the country is still duang dee or lucky to have a pragmatic and flexible foreign policy towards superpowers and other great powers.
It is an approach that may not win their hearts and minds totally as the Thai position is often deemed murky and non-committal. However, from the Thai perspective, keeping the country off the shortlist of sanctions targets is good enough.
As the US-China rivalry persists, Thailand must ensure that both powers understand its diplomatic conduct and rhetoric. They constantly gauge allies and friends' support of their policies and influence in the Indo-Pacific. Indeed, either side could react egregiously to perceived slights of views and positions contrary to its self-interest, especially in today's fiercely competitive geopolitical climate.