The world is heating up, and Thailand must adapt fast to this future or face harsh consequences.
The Arctic is melting, seas are rising, and extreme weather is reshaping the planet. If we don't act to protect ourselves in time, we'll face catastrophic consequences.
We are entering an entirely new world where once unimaginable things are becoming a reality. Take Japan's Mount Fuji. For the first time in 130 years, its summit was snow-free in October, a stark symbol of global warming. What ensues, however, is not only environmental but also economic and political challenges.
Around the world, permafrost is melting in Siberia, revealing ancient mammoth tusks with new ivory businesses. Greenland's melting ice and new mining opportunities are fuelling aspirations for political independence. The new Arctic shipping routes have also stirred geopolitical tensions over control.
Closer to home, Indonesia is planning to move its capital from sinking Jakarta, and the Pacific islands are struggling to survive rising seas.
Thailand, too, faces this inevitable future.
Ahead is a new world fraught with risks. Rising temperatures threaten agriculture, food security, health, and the economy. Farm production will plunge. Biodiversity will shrink from widespread species extinction.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), half the world will face extreme heat lasting more than 20 days at a 2°C temperature rise. At 3°C, this figure jumps to 74%. At 3°C, droughts may last more than 10 months a year. The melting permafrost in Siberia could release lethal methane, intensifying global heat and natural disasters. Beyond 3°C, the damage would be catastrophic, triggering global tipping points.
Thailand is highly vulnerable to rising seas, severe floods, prolonged droughts, and heatwaves. Extreme heat -- days over 35°C will become common, and 40°C heatwaves could be regular.
High temperatures aren't just uncomfortable; they are deadly, particularly for outdoor workers in agriculture, construction, and delivery services who need to cut work hours. As economic hardship spreads, crime could rise, and birth rates could fall.
Natural disasters will intensify. The 2011 floods in central Thailand were one of the worst disasters, and this year's deadly floods in the North remind us of the ongoing threat.
Key to survival is timely climate change adaptation to protect the populace, particularly vulnerable groups who will be most affected by climate disasters.
Despite contributing less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, Thailand ranks 9th in the Climate Risk Index. Over the past 20 years, the country has experienced 146 extreme weather events, causing damages of approximately US$7.7 billion per year.
Coastal flooding poses a critical threat. Within 30 years, parts of Bangkok and the Central Plains close to the Gulf of Thailand could be underwater. It is already happening. In Samut Prakan, the Khun Samut Chin Temple, once inland, now sits on an island due to coastal erosion. Bangkok's Bang Khun Thian district shows utility poles standing in the water as the land sinks.
A study supported by the TDRI also suggests that areas like Phetchaburi could experience 487mm of rainfall over five consecutive days -- truly catastrophic.
Droughts, too, are intensifying, threatening tourism, the country's cash cow. Certain areas, such as Mae Hong Son, could experience over 100 rain-free days a year, leading to extreme heat and water scarcity. The result? Dangerous heatwaves and dwindling water supplies.
Thailand already endures 50 days a year with temperatures over 35°C. That number is rising. Health issues will worsen, and productivity losses could drag down GDP.
So, what can Thailand do? There are three main strategies: prevention, preparation, and recovery.
Prevention and Risk Reduction: We must develop drought-resistant crops, update farming practices, and adapt our infrastructure to withstand storms and floods. Sustainable land use, especially in coastal areas, is vital. Building flood barriers with comprehensive feasibility studies and community input, as well as using mangroves to protect coastlines, are important steps. In some cases, relocation may be the only viable option.
Preparation and Response: Early warning systems and reliable weather forecasts are essential. For instance, the recent floods in the North caused unnecessary damage due to poor warnings. We need to support communities with relocation and essential recovery services where needed.
Recovery and Resilience: Post-disaster recovery should focus on resilience. Insurance and social safety nets help communities recover, and infrastructure should prioritise durability over quick fixes.
We should also avoid "maladaptation" -- actions that worsen climate impacts.
Sea walls, often seen as essential against rising seas, need careful planning. Thailand's proposed sea wall to protect Bangkok must undergo thorough environmental studies, or it could backfire by shifting risks to vulnerable areas.
True adaptation requires addressing inequality since not everyone can adapt equally. Wealthier groups have more resources, while the poor face the greatest climate risks. Climate justice must be a priority to ensure everyone has the support they need.
A look abroad offers valuable lessons. The Netherlands has built a seawall system informed by environmental studies and community input. Japan uses "Digital Twin" technology to simulate flood scenarios and plan evacuations. Israel is a model for water management in drought conditions, and Singapore invests in green spaces to counteract heat waves.
To get the most from adaptation investments, measures should reduce losses, boost the economy, and benefits society and the environment. Key steps include establishing an advanced weather forecasting system, building resilient infrastructure, developing drought-resistant crops, protecting mangroves, and improving water management.
Thailand should levy a carbon tax to create a Green Transition and Adaptation Fund. This fund would support climate adaptation, help vulnerable groups, and improve infrastructure to transition to a low-carbon future. Additionally, the government should use insurance to support those affected by natural disasters instead of relying on one-off handouts.
To prepare for a hotter world, Thailand must create new jobs that don't rely on outdoor work, shift away from traditional farming, consider using biotech seeds, and start charging for water in agriculture. Planning for sea walls and even relocating cities should be on the agenda.
One significant challenge is decentralising power so local communities can manage risk effectively. Reforming uncontrolled land use is also necessary, as it exacerbates floods and other natural disasters.
While Thailand's adaptation plans are steps in the right direction, they still rely on outdated governance models and lack the proper budgeting needed for urgent change. We must take bold action, transforming crises into opportunities for survival through effective adaptation.
The climate crisis, tough as it is, could push Thailand to make overdue reforms for the common good. This includes decentralising state governance, developing robust climate protection systems, modernising agriculture, building climate-resilient cities, expanding eco-tourism, and creating climate insurance.
Thailand needs to act decisively. Our future depends on how we adapt now. This is our chance to turn a crisis into an opportunity for survival. Let's rise to the challenge.
Somkiat Tangkitvanich, Ph.D, is the president of the Thailand Development Research Institute. This article is adapted from his keynote speech at the 2024 TDRI Annual Public Conference on 'Adapting to Climate Change', held on Oct 30, 2024.