With President Donald Trump back in the White House, the fate of the liberal international order created by the US at the end of World War II is at risk.
Key elements of the liberal international order include democracy, human rights, free trade, multilateral international cooperation, and the rules-based international system under international law. Within it, the UN, the World Bank, and the IMF were created. The US dollar became the international reserve currency. Nato was formed to protect liberal democracies in Europe from Soviet aggression.
Free trade agreements flourished, from the multilateral level under the World Trade Organization (WTO), to the regional and bilateral ones. This was globalisation at its peak. Outsourcing or offshoring practices enabled multinational companies to save costs by moving their production sites from higher-wage countries to lower-wage ones. Workers in developed countries were to be retrained for higher-skill, higher-wage jobs. It turned out that this was easier said than done.
In the US, jobs were lost as companies found cheaper labour elsewhere. American workers saw globalisation as benefiting only the executives. Workers lost jobs, and most were not trained for better ones. Mr Trump presented himself as the saviour of the American workers, victims of globalisation and free trade.
At the international level, Mr Trump painted a world where allies took advantage of the US. He described allies as free riders, enjoying US military protection without paying their fair share. Mr Trump saw Nato as a mechanism for Europeans to use American money to pay for their defence. His transactional approach shielded him from seeing all the tangible and intangible elements that make relationships. He judged US foreign relations through the lens of balance of payment. He threatened to pull the US out of Nato during his second term.
His approach placed him against the liberal concept of free trade, turning the US into a protectionist state, wielding tariffs around the world, with China and Mexico as the most important targets. All this without concern that the cost of tariffs on US imports are mostly paid by US consumers.
To be fair, the Biden administration also played a role in the erosion of international law and the liberal international order. Here are two examples.
1. The double standard of condemning Russian violation of international law in Ukraine while enabling Israel to violate international humanitarian law in Gaza and Lebanon weakened international law.
2. US and Western economic sanctions against Russia and US tariffs against China ironically led to closer cooperation between them, with renewed determination to find alternatives to the "Western" liberal international order, including the replacement of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency -- the de-dollarisation process. Using Brics as a platform, this idea is gaining momentum in the Global South, which consists of many developing countries feeling marginalised by the current Western-dominated liberal order. Ironically, with the renewed US embrace of protectionism, China is now presenting itself as the champion of free trade.
Mr Trump sees himself as the leader of peace. He said he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours after taking office. He may be in luck. There is war fatigue going around. The Ukraine war has been at a stalemate. With Mr Trump, it can end fast. An outcome in which Ukraine remains a sovereign state but cedes some of its territory to Russia is likely. Russia currently occupies about 20% of Ukraine. The creation of autonomous regions could play a role in the final settlement.
In the Middle East, although Mr Trump may give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu even more unconditional support for his war efforts, the Israeli prime minister may conclude that there is not much more he can accomplish using the military. It would be a nice gift to his friend Mr Trump if Mr Netanyahu decided to end the war a short time after Trump 2.0 begins.
In East Asia, the US policy of strategic ambiguity under the Taiwan Relations Act (1979) will likely continue. If Mr Trump succeeds in ending the war in Ukraine quickly, with Russia remaining in control of Ukraine's territory, China could see it as a signal that the acquisition of territory by force is acceptable to the US regarding Taiwan as well. This, coupled with Mr Trump's well-known reluctance to use US forces to protect foreign territories, would increase China's incentive to use force against Taiwan during the next four years. However, this alone may not translate into an imminent Chinese invasion since China will have to consider numerous other factors.
It is noteworthy that even though no major war started during Mr Trump's first term, he did get close to igniting one with North Korea because of his brinkmanship and provocative style. In December 2017, US relations with North Korea were at a dangerous point. Mr Trump called Kim Jong-un "little rocket man". He threatened to rain down "fire and fury" and "totally destroy" North Korea. With the US naval build-up in the region, consisting of aircraft carriers and long-range bombers, intentional manoeuvres or accidents could have sparked a war.
Mr Trump sent his envoy to ask countries in the region to cut off communications with North Korea. The envoy came to Thailand and conveyed this message to the Thai government. However, the envoy met me separately and asked me to travel to North Korea or send a personal message there, even though I had no government position at the time. He told me, "We have no other way to reach the North Koreans." The US remembered that back in August 2005, I was in Pyongyang and helped convince the North Koreans to return to the Six-Party Talks. I sent my personal message to North Korea the next day. I was pleased to see the dramatic improvement in US-North Korean relations at the Winter Olympics in South Korea in February 2018, shortly after my message was sent.
The end of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East appears on the horizon as Mr Trump returns to the White House. His brinksmanship style will keep us on edge for the next four years. Nato and the liberal international order will be weakened and thus eroded further. It will depend on which Donald Trump shows up at work during critical moments, the disruptor Trump with a zero-sum vision, or the deal-maker Trump, ready to get credit for deals "the likes of which the world has never seen".
Kantathi Suphamongkhon is former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Thailand. He is a member of RAND Corporation Global and Emerging Risks Advisory Board Former Distinguished Professor of Law and Diplomacy University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA).