With Donald Trump's return to office, Southeast Asia finds itself -- yet again -- paddling between reefs. For Thailand and Malaysia, this means navigating an especially tricky strait. The region is no stranger to this balancing act, or mengayuh antara dua karang, as the Malay proverb goes.
But the stakes are higher than ever, and with the US as volatile as it is powerful, the challenge now is whether the traditional "bamboo diplomacy" can bend without breaking.
The past four years have seen Thailand and the rest of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) members growing increasingly adept at the delicate art of balance, navigating the competitive (and often contradictory) agendas of the US and China. Rather than "navigating", both countries appear to be profiting from the US-China rivalry.
Malaysia, for instance, aims to double its global market share of the overall chip trade by 2029, capitalising on the shifting dynamics between the US and China. Similarly, Thailand is preparing for factories relocating from China due to anticipated US tariffs, positioning itself as an attractive destination for semiconductor manufacturing.
With Mr Trump back in Washington, Southeast Asia's "strategic ambiguity" faces an unprecedented test. Even in stable times, America's commitment to the region has been inconsistent; under Mr Trump, it's a wild card. The pressing question now is whether countries like Thailand and Malaysia can continue relying on their deft bamboo diplomacy or risk becoming entangled -- too close to China, with an unpredictable America holding the shears.
China's economic influence in the region is hardly news, and Thailand and Malaysia have been careful to foster economic ties with Beijing without compromising their autonomy. It's a delicate equilibrium, especially as China remains Southeast Asia's largest trading partner.
Assertive China, unpredictable US
The panda loves bamboo, and in this case, Thailand and Malaysia's willingness to accommodate Chinese trade, investment, and infrastructure projects has kept the bamboo growing. However, with Mr Trump's expected protectionist agenda -- and his known aversion to multilateralism -- Asean faces a dilemma: how close can it be with China without being fenced in?
In Malaysia, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has expressed concern about potential tariffs on Malaysian exports to the US, a signal of how delicate the economic tightrope is. Mr Trump's transactional approach may appeal to some, but for economies reliant on exports and foreign investment, "America First" could mean America alone. This leaves Malaysia and Thailand in need of a hedge.
But rather than putting all their bets on the panda, they might double down on regional partnerships and trade blocs like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to diversify trade and lessen their vulnerability.
As China's influence steadily grows in Southeast Asia, the US presence in the region remains erratic, shaped by shifting administrations and domestic political priorities. Mr Trump's first term left Asean countries questioning whether Washington's attention had permanently drifted. With Mr Trump's return, Southeast Asia faces deeper doubts -- not only about America's reliability but also about its strategic relevance to the region's long-term goals.
For Thailand, which has historically enjoyed a close relationship with the US, the shifting tides are especially complex. While maintaining security ties with Washington, Thailand has simultaneously been building economic and infrastructure partnerships with China. For Malaysia, the balancing act is similarly delicate. Both countries recognise that a re-engaged US, if focused solely on counterbalancing China, could introduce more risks than benefits.
Mr Trump's "America First" agenda, alongside recent US withdrawals from Afghanistan and Washington's limited leverage in crises like Ukraine and Gaza, have spotlighted America's unpredictable commitment, reminding Asean leaders of the potential costs of dependency on any single superpower.
Caught between an increasingly assertive China and an unpredictable America, Thailand and Malaysia are reluctant to play pieces in a larger geopolitical game. The only reassurance, however, comes from Mr Trump's "straight talking" credence: What you see is what you get -- or so the hope goes.
Bamboo Dilemma: Bend or Break?
This brings us back to bamboo diplomacy. Historically, Asean has thrived by bending rather than breaking, cultivating a flexibility that suits the region's collective interest. But flexibility can only go so far before it risks becoming subservience, and the return of Mr Trump's "America First" approach puts Asean's centrality to a serious test. There seems to be no consensus within Asean as to how far the bamboo should bend.
Southeast Asia is unlikely to rank high on the new president's agenda, except concerning US-China relations. Thailand and Malaysia, therefore, will have to be nimble with a renewed focus on regional autonomy. Neither country wants to be fenced in by China nor dependent on an unpredictable US. They must engage both powers strategically, keeping their economies resilient and their foreign policies flexible.
Southeast Asia's bamboo diplomacy remains resilient, bending just enough to appease both the panda and the eagle. Yet, with Mr Trump's return, this balancing act grows even more precarious. Whether it can keep Asean afloat remains uncertain, but if Asean nations excel at anything, it's navigating turbulent waters. For Thailand and Malaysia, the coming years will be about staying steady -- without capsising or becoming the panda's next meal. For Asean, the search for consensus has never been more urgent.
Syed Nizamuddin Bin Sayed Khassim is an administrative and diplomatic officer with the Malaysian government. He is a Khazanah-OXCIS scholar who completed his MSt in diplomatic studies at Kellogg College, University of Oxford. He also holds a masters in public administration from the University of Malaya, and co-founded MyDiplomacy, a movement focused on empowering Malaysian youth with diplomatic opportunities.