As the Pheu Thai Party celebrates its candidate's victory at the Nov 24 PAO chairman election in Udon Thani, analysts see the poll victory differently.
The poll was a fierce two-horse race between Pheu Thai and the leading opposition party, the People's Party. Political heavyweights of both sides took part in the campaign. Among them, Pheu Thai's alleged de facto leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, made his presence felt in the province, dubbed the red-shirt capital.
The former premier -- who was granted a royal pardon when he returned this year -- addressed crowds for the first time since he fled the country in 2007.
Sarawut Petchpanomporn, who is affiliated with the ruling party, won the poll with over 327,400 votes, while Kanisorn Kurirang of the People's Party had 268,675 votes.
But analysts noted the low voter turnout of 52.17%, compared to 67.5% in the last national poll in 2023, which saw the then-Move Forward Party (MFP) -- now the People's Party -- win decisive votes that enabled it to get one seat in the Muang Udon Thani constituency.
The poll's low voter turnout has been attributed to the People's Party's defeat in the Nov 24 poll. Contesting as an opposition party is usually difficult.
Some said Thaksin was there in the campaign because the party had some confidence that it had a chance to win the local poll. This was done to make him look politically smart while the party struggled to improve its popularity following several controversies such as its leaving MFP in favour of military-leaning parties, Thaksin's alleged prison privileges after his return from exile, and the appointment of Pichit Chuenban that cost then-PM Srettha Thavisin his position.
The party's core figures were not reluctant to credit Thaksin for the poll's success. But if you look closely, the party is not really comfortable with the victory. It's not an absolute triumph.
Let the figures explain.
Pheu Thai gained 327,999 in the Nov 24 poll, just about 2,000 votes increase from the 2023 national election. Such a margin is not significant.
On the contrary, while defeated, the People's Party received 82,847 more votes than in the previous poll, showing that it remains a force to be reckoned with and a challenger in Pheu Thai's stronghold.
We should also not forget another crucial factor: the fact that Bhumjaithai, which is becoming more popular in the northeast, chose not to run in the poll, which was an advantage for the ruling party. Otherwise, Pheu Thai might have struggled even more and could have experienced a loss, as, unlike the opposition, the two coalition parties would have split votes.
In fact, if we look back at the PAO poll in Pathum Thani a few months ago. It's the same embarrassment for Pheu Thai.
Charn Puangpetch, the ruling party's choice, won slightly against his rival, Kamronwit Toopkrajang, despite the help from Thaksin and his daughter Paetongtarn, the current prime minister. When the Election Commission announced the election null and void, it was Mr Kamronwit who won a decisive victory in the new election.
So far, the ruling party shares the PAO election cake with coalition partners in 20 provinces where incumbent chairmen chose to immaturely end their terms and run in polls with the hope of avoiding People's Party fever as per the national poll.
Among them, Bhumjaithai gets the most with 10, followed by Pheu Thai (6) and United Thai Nation (3). The People's Party has so far proposed PAO candidates in 15 provinces, selectively the areas where it's considerably popular, including Trat, Rayong, Chanthaburi and some central provinces like Samut Prakan, Nonthaburi and Phuket.
While it cannot win any local polls this year, the People's Party has obtained wider support everywhere it has contested, and that is a healthy sign. Now, the party must win at least one contest to prove it also has a place in local politics.
Of course, the Udon Thani victory will have a positive impact on the remaining PAO elections, which will take place in most parts of the country early next year. Pheu Thai needs to avoid the awkwardness it experienced when it lost heavily to the then-MFP in the north, especially in Chiang Mai, where the opposition won seven out of 10 constituencies.
In the 2023 poll, Pheu Thai could keep only one place, while Palang Pracharath occupied the other two. MFP won hands down regarding list MPs, with 469,436 votes against 358,286 votes by Pheu Thai.
In Lampang, the then-MFP led Pheu Thai by 3:1, while it gained 192,547 votes as compared to 166,192 won by the latter. In Chiang Rai, the MFP trailed closely behind the ruling party, and like the contests in several areas, the margin was narrow, with just four digits.
It should be noted that Pheu Thai has applied all the tactics as a government party to gain an advantage over the opposition.
Just days before the election date, Thaksin announced the next phase of 10,000-baht cash handouts to begin next year. On Nov 29, Pheu Thai also unveiled a plan for mobile cabinet meetings in Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai, with agendas covering tourism promotion projects and a rehabilitation scheme for flooded areas.
These issues are largely seen as local matters that will benefit the party in the next PAO contests.
Regarding the next cash handout for four million elderly, the government, which is to fork out 187 billion baht for the scheme, plans to make gradual payments instead of giving it as a lump sum. Such a payment method could be seen as an attempt to maintain, if not reinforce, its popularity over time.
Analysts are now closely watching how Pheu Thai times the handout in connection with the PAO election date, which is Feb 1. Under the plan, the recipients will get the money on Jan 29-31. Such timing would enable Pheu Thai to reap political benefits from state money.
Having said that, it would be unusual for Pheu Thai to raise its guard against the People's Party in its stronghold in the North, particularly Chiang Mai, where the next PAO contest is still expected to be fierce.
Chairith Yonpiam is assistant news editor, Bangkok Post.