The prospect of fugitive former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra returning home to celebrate the Songkran festival in mid-April is not just wishful thinking by her brother Thaksin, given developments concerning a few key players in the infamous rice-pledging scheme and the Corrections Department's move to draft regulations pertaining to detentions outside prison.
Two major convicts in the massive corruption scandal, former commerce minister Boonsong Teriyapirom and Apichart "Sia Piang" Chansakulporn, former top executive of rice exporting firm, Siam Indica, have been released from prison prematurely and placed on probation under an imprisonment suspension programme.
In the case of Sia Piang, the Corrections Department claimed he suffered from multiple health conditions, including diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney failure, benign prostrate enlargement and sleep apnea.
Whether the claim is reliable is a big question mark, given the fact the department kept the public in the dark about Apichart's release a few months ago until Democrat MP Watchara Petchthong raised questioned it.
The department's lack of transparency is so legendary that it has earned the reputation of being a "twilight zone" as the court's convictions appear to be inconsequential.
The heavy jail terms imposed by the court so that convicts, especially in corruption cases, can learn a lesson are often compromised.
Meanwhile, in prison they are classified as "outstanding" inmates by the parole committee.
The Boonsong, Apichart and Thaksin cases raise doubt about the correctional system in Thailand, which seems to be beneficial to the elites. Hence, the notion that prison is meant for the poor.
The same system is likely to be applied to Yingluck. Deputy spokeswoman of the Corrections Department, Kanokwan Jiewchuaphan, said on Friday the department is collecting feedback from the public on fine-tuning the regulation on detentions outside prison, including criteria for convicts eligible for special detention.
Currently, convicts with jail terms not exceeding four years may qualify.
In the case of Yingluck, who was sentenced to five years in absentia for dereliction of duty in overseeing the rice-pledging scheme which caused about 500 billion baht in economic losses, Ms Kanokwan hinted the regulation may be amended after the public hearing.
Pundits say that with these changes underway, the path soon will to be cleared for the safe return of Yingluck who will get away with spending not a day behind bars like her brother Thaksin, who spent his detention on the 14th floor of Police General Hospital.
The chance of a mass protest is slim in the wake of a weakening anti-Thaksin force. Hardliners, among them Sondhi Limthongkul of the Manager Group, appear to be more concerned with the other more sensitive issue: MoU 44 with Cambodia.
The government appears determined to press ahead with a joint technical committee to start negotiating with Cambodia on the development of fuel and gas projects in an overlapping claim area in the Gulf of Thailand, covering 26,000 square kilometres within the framework of MoU44, despite protests by firebrand Sondhi Limthongkul and his allies.
The detractors want MoU 44 to be scrapped.
They reason that the demarcation line was unilaterally drawn by Cambodia which lays claim to half of Kut island and Thai waters in violation of the International Law of the Seas, although they do not object to the development of the underseas resources provided the two sides negotiate first on the territorial claims.
The rejection of MoU44 also stems from the deep-seated distrust of Cambodia, particularly under Hun Sen, who enjoys a close relationship with Thaksin.
Apparently, emboldened by his control of the bureaucratic system, Thaksin is embarking on a mission to probe the strength of his perceived opponents on different fronts simultaneously, such as by installing one of his trusted men, Kittirat Na-Ranong, as chairman of the central bank, to gain a foothold on the bank to advance the government's financial policies, such as further policy rate cut, and the implementation of MoU 44.
Mr Kittirat has been named as chairman by the selection committee, but his appointment has yet to be approved by the cabinet and a Royal Command is needed to seal it.
But his opponents have threatened to take the case to the Constitutional Court, questioning his qualifications.
Due to the sensitivity of the issue, as it concerns Thailand's territorial sovereignty, MoU 44 is a tough nut to crack. Sondhi and his allies cannot be underestimated as nationalistic sentiment can be easily manipulated, particularly vis-à-vis Cambodia, which recently claimed ownership of "Songkran" at Unesco. The claim was flatly rejected.
Recently, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra missed a good opportunity to win the hearts of southerners. She hesitated or was reluctant to visit the region when it was hit by widespread flooding.
Ms Paetongtarn's failure to visit the region to show compassion and concern for southerners in the way she did with the flood victims in the northern and northeastern regions will serve to solidify southerners' belief that the Pheu Thai Party is biased against them.
What the Thaksin administration did to Thai Muslims in the Deep South during the Tak Bai massacre and the Krue Se mosque raid about two decades ago has left a deep scar in the psyche of people there.
But Ms Paetongtarn missed the opportunity to help heal the wounds; what a pity.
Or does it signal more missteps to come in the foreseeable future?
Veera Prateepchaikul is former editor, Bangkok Post.