The release on parole of convicts in the rice scandal case one after another has sparked speculation about the prospective return of former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who fled the country to avoid imprisonment in the same case.
Previously, ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, formerly a convict on parole, had said his sister could return before the Songkran festival.
The discreet release of Boonsong Teriyapirom, former commerce minister in the Yingluck cabinet, from prison for "health reasons" has aroused public suspicion that the process to facilitate Yingluck's return is underway.
The former PM was sentenced to five years imprisonment for dereliction of duty concerning burgeoning corruption in the rice-pledging scheme that cost the country enormous economic losses. She fled the day the court issued the ruling.
On the same day, Boonsong was handed 48 years in prison for his role in the scheme.
Before his release early this month, he had spent only seven years and three months behind bars. With several royal pardons, he was supposed to be in jail until April 2028. But, due to old age and poor health, he could walk out, albeit with an electronic ankle monitoring (EM) bracelet, under an imprisonment suspension programme.
As Boonsong's discharge hit the headlines, the public was shocked by reports that two other convicts, former deputy commerce minister Poom Sarapol and Apichart "Sia Piang" Chansakulporn, former top executive of rice exporting firm Siam Indica, had discreetly been released from prison under the same programme.
It's an embarrassment for the Department of Corrections.
As the agency later confirmed the reports, the way it has handled the cases has drawn heavy criticism.
Like Boonsong, Sia Piang was handed 48 years, but according to the Department of Corrections, he was well-behaved and considered an outstanding inmate, and he got five pardons altogether. After serving 12 years and one month, he had 22 more years in prison but was eligible for probation because of his old age and multiple health conditions, including chronic kidney failure.
The reduction of hefty jail terms for Boonsong, Apichart and Poom, imposed by the court for such severe corruption cases, raises doubt about the correctional system in Thailand.
The public is also curious if it will all set a bad precedent and if the practice compromises the rule of law. Unscrupulous officials could observe it and take note, thinking they could easily get away with such acts, giving more encouragement for them to break the law.
Now that the preparation of a new regulation involving detentions outside prison is in its final stages -- it may be in effect by the first quarter of next year -- it's enough to imagine Yingluck coming home before this Songkran, as her brother mentioned.
Taking a look at the regulation and its criteria, it seems Yingluck is well qualified, ie she's a first-time convict, has a short sentence time, and has a low possibility of repeating the crime.
The government is trying to explain that the regulation, which they say is aimed at alleviating prison overcrowding, has nothing to do with Yingluck's privilege, saying it's the work of the Prayut Chan-o-cha administration.
That would sound convincing unless we realise that Somsak Thepsutin, then justice minister, pushed for this regulation.
Mr Somsak and Suriya Jungrungreangkit left Palang Pracharath. They returned to Pheu Thai shortly before Gen Prayut dissolved parliament amid speculation that their old boss, Thaksin, was about to return to Thailand.
It's believed that Mr Somsak's role in the new regulation earned him a cabinet position as deputy PM and health minister in the Pheu Thai-led coalition. To put it bluntly, it's a political bonus from Thaksin, who influences Pheu Thai.
This is also the most convenient time for Yingluck as her niece, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is in office. Therefore, it's no exaggeration to say that Yingluck will probably enjoy the same prison privileges as her brother, who did not stay a single day behind bars but remained on the 14th floor of the police hospital for six months after returning to Thailand in August last year.
It could be said that this coming Songkran will be a happy time for the Shinawatras, with a family reunion.
But does not bode well for the country and the rule of law?
Definitely not. It will impose a heavy cost on the country's justice system.