As Thaksin Shinawatra, ex-prime minister and the de facto leader of the Pheu Thai Party, is trying hard to tighten his grip on power, the local political landscape is shifting and changing. Politicians are now divided into three blocs: the ruling party, Bhumjaithai (BJT) and the People's Party, which, despite being the opposition, remains a strong force.
There have been quite a few incidents over the past two months indicating there has been a falling out between Pheu Thai and the BJT, but since they do not have to face the prospect of a new election any time soon, they dare not break up right now for fear they may both end up losers. They need to reinforce their collective strength until the government's tenure expires in 2027.
Thaksin, while campaigning in Chiang Mai for a local election recently, declared that his daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, will complete her term and that means the two parties will have no choice but to stick together till the end.
Anutin Charnvirakul, the BJT leader, has downplayed the speculated rift, which involves a few issues including the absence of key politicians during a cabinet meeting on Dec 11 when two crucial executive decrees were tabled, as well as the controversy over the Khao Kradong land plot, ruling out conflicts between the two coalition partners. "There have not been -- and will not be -- any problems. We are obliged to work together as a government coalition," Mr Anutin said earlier.
The BJT leader stressed that mutual respect will underpin their harmonious coexistence.
As Pheu Thai and the BJT seem to have made a truce, the ruling party's relations with the United Thai Nation (UTN) have become strained over differences in energy policy and the so-called MOU 44 involving a joint development area between Thailand and Cambodia.
But undeniably, the alliance between the ruling party and the BJT is fragile. The coalition fallout stems largely from Thaksin's attempt to consolidate power, and regain popularity among voters. After all, the government parties are political rivals and their getting on the same boat is just an ad-hoc affair, with one immediate goal, which was to block the since-disbanded Move Forward Party (MFP), the real poll winner, from taking office.
Despite victories in the past few local polls including in Ratchaburi and Udon Thani, Pheu Thai is well aware that it still lags behind the MFP's reincarnation, the People's Party (PP), in terms of public support.
It could be said Pheu Thai and Thaksin are playing for high stakes in the forthcoming provincial administrative organisation (PAO) elections, particularly in Chiang Mai. The party suffered a huge loss to the MFP in the 2023 national election in this northern province -- considered Pheu Thai's home base -- which was a major embarrassment. It cannot afford to lose again, or its former victories in local polls would be meaningless.
This is a crucial time for Pheu Thai and Thaksin. Needless to say, they regard the remaining local polls, scheduled for Feb 1, as a case of all-out war. Thaksin, backed up by the old guard that enables him to escape from all accusations, has played an aggressive game.
He wants to win as many seats as possible in the local polls, while trying to sweep all the "ban yai" political networks under his wing, with a view to securing victory in the next national election.
Other parties face with the same challenge as Pheu Thai, as they attempt to maximise their gains in local elections, with the hope of winning the national election. With aggressive competition among "ban yai" politicians, violence is sometimes unavoidable as in the case of Prachin Buri. A local politician who wanted to leave the BJT for Pheu Thai ahead of the local polls was brutally killed.
Apart from Chiang Mai, Thaksin, in his capacity as the poll campaign leader, is eyeing the North and Northeast -- formerly Pheu Thai's stronghold. His role is to allow his daughter to focus on running the country and winning hearts through populist policies like the cash handout scheme and housing projects for the poor.
But as the three blocs strive to maintain their political triumvirate, the alliance is vulnerable to change. The PP is a key variable in Pheu Thai's decision to shift allegiance to the BJT. The old adage that there are no real friends and foes in politics remains valid.
Some analysts note that the PP, which now has 143 MPs, may discreetly extend its hand to Pheu Thai, its friend in the last opposition bloc, for a possible alliance after the next election.
Pheu Thai should welcome such a move as there is no guarantee it will make a big comeback in the 2027 polls. The ruling party has to accept this uncertainty given the fact that Ms Paetongtarn lacks strong political appeal, especially among urban voters.
Therefore, it may need to nurture an alliance with the PP to give it leverage with the Old Guard, especially if they turn against the party. If so, the opposition and ruling party may again find one another to be "a friend in need".
At the same time, we cannot underestimate the BJT's prowess, particularly if it joins forces with the UTN and Palang Pracharath or even the People's Party, should the latter compromise its stance on Section 112, the lese majeste law. Besides, the BJT has a strong affiliation with the Senate, which has the power to appoint members of independent agencies like the Constitutional Court and the Election Commission, to name but a few.
At this stage, all three blocs have strong bargaining power against one another. Thaksin seems to have regained some strength but still cannot have absolute power -- as he enjoyed in the early 2000s. Besides, it is possible the ruling party may lose the next election, or find itself ditched by the old guard. With such uncertainty, Thaksin has no choice but to wage an all-out war to stay afloat.
