The year 2024 was favourable to Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's government and the Pheu Thai Party. Last month, the charter court rejected some petitions from political opponents accusing her and Pheu Thai of violating election laws and malfeasance.
Meanwhile, the economy is predicted to turn around this year for the better -- with the Fiscal Policy Office projecting GDP to expand to 3%. Large international tech companies like Google, chip giant Nvidia and even Apple-electronic makers Foxconn are investing here.
Then there is tourism, which is projected to return to pre-Covid era levels. Such momentum will continue, but it is also, as per the Chinese lunar calendar, the Year of the Snake, which can become venomous if the Pheu Thai government cannot solve some of the country's fundamental economic and societal problems.
This year will bring unusual and significant challenges internationally and regionally for Pheu Thai.
The first uphill battle will be dealing with a trade war and possibly higher tariffs for goods exported from Thailand to the US. The "America First" ethos of President-elect Donald Trump could see a 10-20% tariff increase, which could make Thai goods no longer competitive. It is hoped that the Ministry of Commerce and trade negotiators are prepared to deal with mercantile-driven Washington. Failure means Thai exports will not gain traction.
Local economic challenges are no less worrying. An influx of cheap goods and fruits from China forced many local operators to close down their businesses last year. In response, Thai officials conducted crackdowns on illegal, cheap imported goods and proxy businesses from China.
At the same time, the government rushed to ink free trade agreements and boost bargaining power by joining international blocs such as Brics and the G20. All such efforts are good but not enough. The government must help local brands and upskill labourers so the country's industries can compete, upgrade and find new markets. Being OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) and making products for others is not enough.
Meanwhile, the situation in Myanmar will enter uncharted territory in October, when the junta government will hold a national election, one that the anti-junta and armed ethnic groups will not accept. As the closest neighbour and member of Asean, Thailand is expected to play a significant role in pushing Asean's 5-point consensus that aims to foster peaceful dialogue and provide humanitarian assistance to all affected civilians.
Southern peace talks will also be a litmus test for Pheu Thai on whether it differs from the previous Prayut Chan-o-cha government that advocated army control. The good rapport between former premier Thaksin Shinawatra and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim raises hopes that the peace talks process between the Barisan Revolusi Nasional and Thailand's National Security Council will be fruitful. The good connections with her father might open the door, but Ms Paetongtarn must carry on with the appropriate policies to win the hearts of local people in the far South.
This year will be challenging for Ms Paetongtarn, but she will also have opportunities. It is hoped that she and cabinet ministers from various parties will join hands to work together and solve problems at the fundamental level.
Last year was a start for the premier, while in 2025, her government must present real progress for the nation.