Thai diplomacy has recently reared its ugly head. Two approaches are at play -- the official one pronounced in parliament in September and the informal one made by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra at any given moment. Truth be told, the latter seems to overshadow the former. The Thaksinisation of Thai foreign policy is coming back with a loud bang.
After emerging from hibernation, Thaksin has made it clear that he is the panacea for all of Thai society's dysfunctions, both in internal and external realms. How will this affect official foreign policy? Only Buddha knows. Suffice it to say that currently, Thai diplomacy is causing great anxiety among allies and friends.
Despite the government's attempts to project a positive image through an overdose of public relations, the country's outlook does not appear promising. It is currently divided and lacks strong leadership. Thaksin has been lurking in the shadows over the cabinet. Meanwhile, Paetongtarn, his daughter, must increase her leadership profile so as not to be overshadowed.
Thaksin's new role as a private adviser to Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has raised his diplomatic profile. Domestically, he would also be one of the key decision-makers determining the trajectory of Thai diplomacy. However, it is doubtful that he can do that effectively within the current regional circumstances.
Recently, Thaksin was in hyperbole, boasting about his ability to settle problems with neighbouring countries quickly, including eradicating scam call operations along the Thai border with Myanmar and Cambodian by this year. If successful, his ultimatum could earn him regional acclaim since these scams impact not just Thailand but also neighbouring countries and China.
Looking ahead, Thailand has several important diplomatic responsibilities. It will chair the Asia Dialogue Cooperation and host the postponed 6th Bimstec (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Science, Technical, Economic Cooperation) summit. In addition, as the crisis in Myanmar continues into its fifth year, it remains the country's top priority.
After a long delay, the Special Task Force to Administrate the Situation Arising from the Myanmar Conflict, chaired by Foreign Minister Maris Sagiampongsa, will meet for the first time on Jan 13. The task force will discuss the country's plans to tackle humanitarian efforts and promote political dialogue, including strengthening cooperation with Asean.
In September, Mr Maris emphasised that Thailand's foreign policy would focus on "diplomacy for the people" and proactive economic diplomacy. However, tangible achievements have been limited. The government has faced controversies related to various issues, including the detention of four Thai fishermen captured by Myanmar's naval forces, the fate of "pi noi" labourers in South Korea, and the hostage crisis in Gaza, not to mention controversies surrounding the MoU on joint petroleum development in the Gulf of Thailand between the Thai and Cambodian governments. These incidents have not reflected well on the current administration.
Indeed, the government's commitment to supporting Thai nationals abroad has also fallen short. Many families are still uncertain about their loved ones taken hostage during the Oct 7 Hamas militant attack in southern Israel. Moreover, despite dangerous conditions, Thai workers continue to seek jobs in Israel due to limited opportunities at home.
As conflicts in the Middle East continue unabated, the government must ensure the safety of Thai workers there. Ongoing military operations in Israel could lead to unexpected casualties among Thai workers. Similarly, those working in South Korea face difficulties managing expired work permits and potential exploitation by employers. Although relations between Thailand and South Korea are rock solid, issues surrounding overstayed workers still need urgent remedies.
Under the government of former premier Srettha Thavisin, trade and investment were promoted, especially tourism, without adequately addressing geopolitical concerns. Thanks to "Moo Deng", the pygmy hippo, the country gained some international attention. Moo Deng even dominated The New York Times' list of stylists for 2024. However, the nation needs more serious diplomatic engagement to remain on the radar and stay relevant.
Ms Paetongtarn is often perceived as a lightweight leader. The press has nicknamed her "Paetongphoey" -- a label reflecting her dependence on prepared scripts during important meetings. In fact, she said the nickname "Paetongpad" would be more accurate, referring to her habit of reading from a notepad.
She often speaks English without an interpreter. It is problematic as her language proficiency is insufficient for complex discussions related to sensitive bilateral issues, geopolitical dynamics, and critical Asean affairs. During the bloc's summit in Vientiane, she did not attend key sessions, raising concern over her engagement level among the Asean colleagues.
Although the global landscape is shifting rapidly, the US remains the world's most powerful country. Donald Trump's return as president has raised questions about the direction of US foreign policy towards Southeast Asia, especially Thailand. With Mr Trump's propensity to punish countries that do not serve Washington's interests with tariffs and other wish lists, Bangkok must be prepared.
Thailand's ties with the three Asian powerhouses -- China, Japan and South Korea -- are excellent. For other countries, they are good, predictable and stable, especially with India, the EU, Russia, Australia, New Zealand, and Saudi Arabia.
What is worrying is that Thaksin will complicate official efforts at working levels, which can hamper pressing issues such as worker safety abroad, migrant workers, and regional cooperation, which demand immediate attention. As Thailand prepares for upcoming diplomatic events and engagement, it must strengthen its leadership and clarify its foreign policy direction to regional partners and global powers. As such, it must have a clear direction -- meaning policies from Saranrom Palace.