In the swirling whirligig of world events, the past year 2024 was nearly like no other. Extraordinary but often jarring occurrences mixed in a hodgepodge of hope, joy and despair as crucial elections were won and lost, regional conflicts exploded and humanitarian crises boiled over with sickening predictability.
Again, I'm prepared to say that if the news cycle 2024 were the outline for a thriller novel or movie, most agents would scoff and say the plot and storyline are simply too far-fetched to believe! Well, we lived it! But now, some of the dust may slowly begin to settle. Here's why.
First off, aggressor states like Putin's Russia have worn down Ukraine but also themselves. This does not mean the fight is over, but everybody may be looking for a military and political off-ramp after the exhausting fighting now for nearly three bloody years.
Second, president-elect Donald Trump's pro-active American foreign policy, while safeguarding US interests, will also focus on stopping ongoing conflicts from Ukraine to the Middle East. During the past year, in the twilight of the Biden-Harris administration and the tumultuous American elections, the global power vacuum expanded dangerously.
The electoral triumph by Mr Trump will most likely reestablish overdue political equilibrium in key regions. Washington must now shift from managing chaos to solving crises amid still-rising geopolitical tensions.
Ukraine: After a massive transfusion of over US$183 billion (6.3 trillion baht) in American military and economic aid, Ukraine has not won the war but could certainly lose it. The Russians have ground down the outnumbered Ukrainian military. Moscow hasn't won either, but they could. Mr Trump has promised to end the Ukraine war, not easy, but the new American president can help bring about a ceasefire and a truce. The Europeans want this to end, too, as they cannot afford to keep supporting Kyiv with unlimited weapons and aid.
Middle East: The churning crisis in Gaza, tragically triggered by Iran-backed Hamas terrorists, has spilt over elsewhere, as predicted, into neighbouring Lebanon. Hezbollah fighters attacked the Israelis only to have the IDF teach them a tough lesson in southern Lebanon. Tragically, this escalation has destabilised Lebanon, a once reasonably pluralistic and prosperous place. Following the fall of Syria's Assad dictatorship, it's naive to assume the Islamic rebels really plan to establish a democracy. Watch carefully how this unfolds, not only for the Syrian refugee diaspora in Europe but for ancient Christian and Druze minorities inside Syria.
Iran: Tehran's military proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis have all taken a military battering from the Israelis. The collapse of Assad's Syrian regime was the turning point. Moreover, the domestic situation in the Islamic Republic of Iran has become dismal. Given a fortuitous constellation of events, this may be the year that Iran's brutal regime collapses under its own weight of incompetence and rash foreign military misadventures. For the sake of the long-suffering Iranian people, especially its talented and frustrated youth, this would not come a moment too soon.
Elections: France had a swirl of three prime ministers in the past year, harkening to the pre-war Third Republic. Germany's unstable coalition government has teetered and fallen; Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats face new elections in late February. It's likely the Christian Democrats will return to power and revive lacklustre growth. In Canada, too, the mismanagement by the progressive/leftist Justin Trudeau government has sadly turned Canada into a laughingstock. Mr Trudeau will likely lose parliamentary elections later in the year to conservatives.
East Asia: The status quo was rattled as South Korea's tumultuous democracy took a turn for the unexpected as a baffling martial law declaration by the sitting President Yoon Suk-yeol triggered political pushback from opposition parties. These moves and antics by both sides now tarnish South Korea's burnished brand of political and economic standing. Moreover, instability in South Korea encourages communist North Korea to play more political-military provocations. North Korea's dictator Kim Jong-un has moved closer to Russia and now supplies troops for Putin's Ukraine war!
Taiwan's vibrant democracy still faces a growing military threat from communist China. Beijing's rulers have never renounced using force to conquer what they claim is part of the People's Republic (but never was). Despite the military standoff, mainland China's economy is lacklustre and challenged by widespread corruption and demographic decline.
Areas to watch: Troubled geographic fault lines, which arc from Bosnia to Serbia, Georgia, Armenia and Moldova, face Russian-instigated subversion and political subterfuge. Amid these challenges ahead, have a Happy and Healthy New Year!!
John J Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defence issues.