Everybody it seems is suddenly interested in Greenland. Canada, Russia, China and the United States all are vying for a foothold on the Arctic island. A fantastically beautiful but often foreboding place locked in ice and isolation, Greenland's remoteness has been both its blessing and its bane. This may now be changing.
In a politically stunning New Year's Address from the capital Nuuk, Greenlandic Prime Minister Múte Egede has called for "independence from Denmark".
Given its geographic location and largely untapped mineral riches, Greenland has gained the overdue attention of both nearby and faraway countries, both as a place of mining and foreign investment as well as a military base for security through emerging Arctic Ocean waters and maritime passageways.
The remote, if overlooked, Arctic island, three times the size of Texas, sits between North America and Europe, just north of busy commercial aviation routes. Once a colony, Greenland became self-ruling with its own parliament in 1979. Greenland remains a Danish territory, with Copenhagen exercising control over its foreign and defence policy.
Though a self-governing region of the Kingdom of Denmark, Greenland is largely dependent on the Copenhagen government for revenue, trade and protection. The entire population of 57,000, mostly Inuit, is that of one medium-sized US city! Greenland receives an annual subsidy of about €500 million, (17.8 billion baht) supporting a classic Scandinavian social welfare state.
Denmark is a founding member of Nato and a very close US ally. During the Cold War, Greenland hosted a number of US military bases most of which have been phased out. Even today the Thule facility near the North Pole remains a vital American facility with over the Arctic horizon radar and monitoring of Russian airspace and communications.
I have had the privilege to visit Greenland on a few occasions during the region's relatively warm, nearly always daylight Summer to accompany units of the New York Air National Guard who maintain a unique airbridge to the territory. In the past flights serviced the Sonderstrom Air Base, served by an Air Guard C-130 Ski-plane Squadron flying in supplies and supporting inland icecap locations.
Does truth mirror fiction? In the popular edgy Danish political drama series Borgen on Netflix evokes the current situation; a Canadian petroleum company sets up in Greenland largely with local approval. Before long it turns out the company has secret Russian connections, which triggers immediate US security concerns. Before long Chinese investors are meddling in the mix. As Denmark remains responsible for Greenland's foreign affairs, the indefatigable Minister Birgitte Nyborg walks a political tightrope between giving political space to the self-governing Greenland government while at the same time being pressured by Washington. The entire imbroglio causes the near collapse of the Danish coalition government.
Now enter President-elect Donald Trump. He recently stated US control of Greenland now has become an "absolute necessity". But this is more aspirational to get Denmark to do more for its own defence, which remains below the 2% Nato requirement. After Mr Trump's comments, the Danes said they would send a few extra ships and two long-range dog-sledge teams to beef up the defence in an area bigger than Alaska!
Following WWII, US President Harry Truman offered to buy Greenland from the Danes and got an icy response from our ally. Mr Trump was equally rebuffed by Nuuk and Copenhagen. Mr Egede declared Greenland is "not for sale".
Under a 2009 agreement with Denmark, Greenland can only declare independence after a successful referendum.
Mr Trump's offer is not novel. During his first Administration, he offered to buy Greenland. Indeed, the US bought the Danish West Indies in 1917 for $25 million in gold. They're now called the US Virgin Islands. That was about strategy, too, during WWI. The incoming Trump Administration asserts that both mineral deposits as well as maritime lanes of communication both across the Atlantic as well as possible new channels in the Arctic Ocean call for Greenland's pro-active defence.
A 2024 public opinion poll taken by the University of Greenland by Professors Nielsen, Rasmus Leander & Maria Ackrén show that of respondents 59% favour wider cooperation with the US and 80% with Canada as compared to 12% with Russia and 25% with China. But only 18.8% favour closer security links with the US but 44% to Nato.
Mr Egede demanded, "It is now time to take the next step for our country". He should speak with Mr Trump about a deal.
John J Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defence issues. He is the author of 'Divided Dynamism: The Diplomacy of Separated Nations; Germany, Korea, China'.