Thai politics is currently undergoing significant change. The junta and its conservative network, which held a grip on politics over the last two decades, are fading from the scene. Now, we witness ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra making his political comeback as a relatively new player -- the Bhumjaithai Party wields its power over the Upper Chamber.
Hanging in the balance is the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party, which was previously led by former PM Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, who washed his hands from politics following his 2023 poll loss. The 2023 election amounted to the public carrying out a coup de grace on the junta.
Meanwhile, Palang Pracharath (PPRP) under Gen Prawit Wongsuwon won fewer seats, precipitating its subsequent downfall. Once mighty, the PPRP has now ruptured. The key but controversial figure of Capt Thamanat Prompow was expelled from the party after a dispute with Gen Prawit, whom he had kowtowed to before.
Yet, there are no real friends and foes in Thai politics.
Capt Thamanat left the party with a sizeable breakaway group, transforming himself into becoming Thaksin's right-hand man. At the same time, the PPRP was eventually forced to share the opposition bench with its ideological nemesis, the People's Party, the latest incarnation of the Move Forward Party.
Capt Thamanat subsequently established a party, Kla Dham, which means "dare to do" in the local language. It is a foregone conclusion that Kla Dham will join the next coalition with Pheu Thai. Capt Thamanat's former boss, the ageing Gen Prawit, will soon have no choice but to bid farewell to politics, leaving the PPRP to become even smaller.
The last man standing in the conservative wing is the UTN, now led by Pirapan Salirathavibhaga. Its amalgamation with Pheu Thai is already an anticlimax in Thai politics, and its future in the coalition remains uncertain. Mr Pirapan, deputy prime minister and energy minister, has difficulty handling a few factions rising to challenge his leadership. Pitcharat Laohapongchana, a list MP with energy sector connections, is among the first to submit his resignation notice.
UTN is indeed at a juncture. The party has lost support from energy giants as a result of Mr Pirapan's bold decision to fix some energy policy flaws, such as suspending the signing of dubious renewable energy contracts, proposing a bill on rooftop solar power to push for cheap energy, and putting a brake on the appointment of a new energy regulatory commission, aiming to dismantle energy monopolies.
While these policy reforms help make the reclusive and finicky Mr Pirapan more popular and relatable to the public, his energy reform policies have upset the energy giants. Some UTN members with ties to the energy sector even shifted their support to a new party, New Opportunity, which was formed in November last year in the same fashion as Capt Thamanat's party. There are reports that UTN party members, particularly those affiliating with energy businesses, are to leave the party en masse and join the new entity. Akanat Prompan, a key UTN leader, denied such speculation, albeit unconvincingly.
It should be noted that some of Mr Pirapan's initiatives do not align with that of the Pheu-Thai-led government, which also has close affiliations with business giants.
Mr Pirapan's bid for lower energy fees, yet to be successful, has won public recognition. As a result, he was ranked with a more favourable place in a popularity poll. But there was speculation that he might be kicked out of the cabinet or lose his energy portfolio. It's no secret that Pheu Thai had long before fixed its eyes on the energy portfolio but stepped aside as it needed UTN's help.
Mr Pirapan complained of attempts to discredit him on social media, with some media channels unfairly attacking him with some fabricating news against him, suggesting that he was in conflict with Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
Thaksin, meanwhile, has denied the speculation about Mr Pirapan and has ruled out the UTN's leader's dismissal as the energy minister and deputy PM. He has claimed they are still singing the same tune.
Yet, behind the scenes, it's known that the Pheu Thai de facto leader is not very happy with Mr Pirapan's initiatives. Perhaps he needs more time.
While downplaying the rift with UTN, Thaksin also tries to steal the show. He says Mr Pirapan's lower electricity fees are not good enough and that he has a better plan to push the fees further down.
It's anticipated, however, that a cabinet reshuffle will take place after the no-confidence motion next month. By then, Mr Pirapan will have to wait with bated breath as Pheu Thai rotates the position. UTN and Mr Pirapan will learn that, unlike at the start of the honeymoon period when the party joined the Pheu Thai-led coalition, they are losing bargaining power. It will be no surprise if the UTN and PPRP lose more members to Pheu Thai, which is seeking to restore its political glory to win big in the next election.