Trump ready with Asean policy 2.0
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Trump ready with Asean policy 2.0

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A Jan 15 picture shows US President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) testifying during his Senate Foreign Relations confirmation hearing at Dirksen Senate Office Building. (Photo: AFP)
A Jan 15 picture shows US President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) testifying during his Senate Foreign Relations confirmation hearing at Dirksen Senate Office Building. (Photo: AFP)

Last week's Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing for Senator Marco Rubio was very insightful, especially regarding comments related to US-Asean relations. Mr Rubio demonstrated knowledge about Asean and the need for flexibility in engaging with the countries in the region. His comments have also calmed surging concerns over a potential tariff hike under the Trump administration. Certainly, he is expected to be confirmed and replace Antony Blinken as Secretary of State.

Mr Rubio emphasised a "pragmatic" and "realistic" US approach to Asean. He was hopeful that by adopting these measures, the US could strengthen ties with the bloc. At the hearing, Senator Tammy Duckworth, a Democrat from Illinois, stressed the importance of Asean centrality for regional peace and stability. Both Democrats and Republicans are aligned regarding closer cooperation with Asean. Surprisingly, she even mentioned the concept of Madani proposed by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim as part of the Asean chairmanship this year to Mr Rubio.

In recent weeks, Donald Trump has made controversial remarks on foreign policy, such as suggesting US control of the Panama Canal and attempting to buy Greenland from Denmark. Furthermore, he stated he would even incorporate Canada as the 51st state of the US. However, up until now, Southeast Asia has not been mentioned, which is a relief for Asean leaders.

In many ways, Mr Rubio's testimony provided clarity on Trump's Asean strategy. In contrast, the hearing of Pete Hegseth, who was nominated as Defense Secretary, became a subject of mockery on Capitol Hill. Mr Hegseth, a political commentator for Fox News, uttered names of US allies like South Korea and Japan while answering a question from Sen Duckworth about what he knows about Asean. His reply suggested he might not know much at all about the grouping.

In contrast, Mr Rubio was clear about Asean. He stressed that Washington should avoid pressuring Asean to align with either the US or China. He argued that forcing nations to choose sides destabilises the region and erodes trust. It would be a mistake, he reiterated, to make it a condition of US engagement with Asean. "To say you must pick a side and you must pick a side now: Are you with them or are you with us?" he said.

At the Asean Foreign Ministers' Retreat in Langkawi on Sunday, Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan made clear that Asean will chart its own path amid growing superpower competition in the region. He was quoted by Bernama as stating that Southeast Asia holds massive potential due to its highly geo-strategic position, cultural versatility, and economic weight.

It is reassuring to hear that Mr Rubio prioritises economic cooperation as the cornerstone of US-Asean relations. He supports multilateralism, which departs from Mr Trump's approach of transactional engagement. Indeed, through more trade and investment, the US can strengthen its influence and reinforce its leadership in Southeast Asia.

It is pivotal to point out that the US is the bloc's second-largest trading partner and its largest investor. Asean was the fourth-largest trading partner for the US. In 2023, two-way trade amounted to US$395.9 billion, doubling from US$205.3 billion in 2013.

With the scheduled launch in May of Asean Community Vision 2045, the bloc is fast becoming a more integrated economic entity that could potentially become the world's fourth-largest economy in the next five years with a combined GDP of US$3.8 trillion.

Moreover, Asean is finalising negotiations for the Digital Economy Framework Agreement, the first of its kind in the world. The agreement is expected to be completed under Malaysia's chairmanship and could raise economic stakes in the region as high as US$2 trillion by 2030.

Truth be told, Washington's policy toward Asean has focused on bilateral ties that benefit from their overall strategic interests over the collective bloc. This approach also reflects Washington's scepticism about Asean's effectiveness. During the hearing, Mr Rubio also recognised Asean's centrality in addressing regional challenges like security threats, climate change, human rights issues, and public health crises.

However, one important element that Mr Rubio mentioned in passing was the region's value chain. In the coming years, Asean will become a pivotal player in the global value chain. Asean has upgraded its Trade in Goods Agreement to incorporate digital economy initiatives as well as decarbonisation and circular economy initiatives. This will further increase Asean supply chain resiliency as it addresses trade crises and alternative dispute mechanisms.

By promoting multilateralism, Mr Rubio hopes to increase trust among allies and friends. Frankly speaking, Asean members are also anxious about the future of Biden's Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and whether Mr Trump will pull out of this new trade initiative. IPEF has 14 members, half of which are from Asean. In addition, Mr Trump's near-complete absence from Asean-related summits during his first term raised doubts about US commitment to the region.

This time, Mr Trump's presence or absence at the upcoming 47th Asean summits in early October -- particularly at the Asean-US summit and East Asia Summit -- will serve as an affidavit of his seriousness about the bloc. Every year, Asean has to negotiate until late at night to determine if the sitting US president will attend.

Last week Prime Minister Anwar said in London that he would rejuvenate key mechanisms of Asean Plus Three and the East Asia Summit (EAS), which can leverage their convening power but remain "underutilised." During his visit to Moscow last year, he already invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Asean summits.

Soon, it will become clear whether the incoming US Secretary of State Rubio has what it takes to reshape US-Asean relations effectively. Closer ties with Asean will make America more prosperous and vice versa.

Kavi Chongkittavorn

A veteran journalist on regional affairs

Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs

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