US friends and foes buckle up for 'America First'
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US friends and foes buckle up for 'America First'

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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets the foreign ministers of India, Australia and Japan at the State Department in Washington, US, on Jan 21. (Photo: Reuters)
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets the foreign ministers of India, Australia and Japan at the State Department in Washington, US, on Jan 21. (Photo: Reuters)

Less than 24 hours after US President Donald Trump was sworn into office on Monday, new Secretary of State Marco Rubio met foreign minister counterparts from America's closest allies in the Indo-Pacific -- the so-called "Quad" with Australia, India and Japan, as aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson finished its first big 2025 training exercise in waters near the Philippines.

For all the early focus on efforts to end the Ukraine and Middle East conflicts, the Trump administration will have surprised few by focusing so early on countries key to America's confrontation with China.

Already, though, there are also signs of just how different this new era may truly be. America's partners and adversaries both appear to be scrambling to adapt to that new reality.

In his inaugural address, Mr Trump announced what he called a new "golden age" in which the US would build its military strength and look to expand its territory -- the latter something no US president has pledged in more than a century. But he did not refer to allies, friends or partners once, except in reference to putting "America first" in all interactions.

Speaking to State Department personnel this week, Mr Rubio told them that US foreign policy would be "centred on one thing, and that is the advancement of our national interest ... Anything that makes us stronger or safer or more prosperous ... that will be our mission".

As former British Foreign Secretary David Miliband told a UK broadcaster: "Trump was elected as a disruptor. The message is: 'Buckle up'. They don't buy the argument that America benefits from its global stabilising role. One should respect the electoral mandate that he has, but also understand that he's not kidding."

Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, who met Mr Rubio on Tuesday, was an early engager with that rhetoric, saying he had stressed Japan had been the largest foreign investor in the US for the last five years and was also now spending much more on defence just as Mr Trump demanded.

Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte echoed that on Thursday, saying Mr Trump was "right" to demand US allies do more on defence.

As a group, the Quad ministers stressed that within the region, they "strongly oppose any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion".

That appeared to be a veiled reference to Taiwan, which China has repeatedly expressed its determination to "reunify" with the mainland and which US military officials say Beijing may be ready to invade as soon as 2027.

Several of Mr Trump's Pentagon appointments -- including Elbridge Colby, incoming Under Secretary of Defence for Policy -- have argued that the US must prioritise the rising threat from China, if necessary by drawing resources away from Europe in general and Ukraine in particular. But they have also warned that Taiwan itself must do much more in its own defence.

That latter point, however, may be an early stumbling point for the Trump administration.

Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang party -- once the Nationalist government that ran the island after fleeing mainland China in 1949 following the communist victory, but now the most pro-China of its major parties -- looks set to block increases in defence spending favoured by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.

Under mounting pressure from intensifying Chinese patrols around their air space and waters, a situation in which local politics prevented Taiwan building up its defences would be the worst-case scenario for President Lai Ching-te's government in Taipei.

It is already worried about comments from Mr Trump and Vice President J D Vance suggesting Taiwan was not doing enough to justify ongoing US protection.

But both Taiwan and the Philippines will have been more cheered by recent words from Mr Rubio.

"If the Chinese are, in fact, serious about stabilising US-China relations and ...avoiding conflict, then they will not do anything rational or irrational when it comes to Taiwan and the Philippines," Mr Rubio said last week at his Senate confirmation hearing. "They really need to stop messing around with Taiwan and the Philippines because it's forcing us to focus our attention in ways we prefer not to have."

QUESTIONS ON EUROPE, UKRAINE

For his part, Mr Trump has presented his determination to end conflicts elsewhere in the world as a sign of his determination to avoid a wider global conflict.

"I will end the war in Ukraine, I will stop the chaos in the Middle East and I will prevent World War Three from happening -- and you have no idea how close we are," he told a pre-inauguration rally.

So far, that effort does seem to have helped win the start of hostage releases under the Gaza ceasefire deal, as well as a commitment from Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen not to attack vessels not linked to Israel passing nearby waters.

Writing on his True Social media platform recently, Mr Trump demanded Russian President Vladimir Putin stop the "ridiculous war" in Ukraine or face increased sanctions, taxes and tariffs.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Bloomberg at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week that he believed US troops must be part of any post-war peacekeeping mission in his country. "Even if some European friends think it can be, it can't be. Nobody will risk without the United States," he said.

Still, both Mr Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron told the gathering that Europe needed to do much more in its own defence.

But the bottom line is that most European nations remain well short of the 5% commitment of GDP towards defence Mr Trump now says he wants -- so far only Lithuania and Poland have pledged to reach that level, but many other allies lag far behind.

Just as important as how Mr Trump deals with allies, however, is how his relationship develops with potential foes.

He has threatened new 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, a move linked directly to allegations that China has been pushing the highly addictive drug fentanyl into the US and its neighbours, something Beijing denies.

Those threatened tariffs, however, are considerably lower than the 60% Mr Trump mooted during his election campaign.

Having declined Mr Trump's invitation to attend the inauguration, Chinese President Xi Jinping held a friendly call with Mr Trump on Friday, congratulating him and discussing trade and the recent US ban on Chinese social media platform TikTok.

Mr Trump himself credits TikTok with helping him win votes among young people and has pledged to overturn the Biden administration's ban.

Mr Putin and Mr Xi held a videoconference shortly after the US inauguration ceremony, almost certainly to discuss how they will handle Mr Trump's new transactional approach.

Russia also last week signed a defence pact with Iran – although it stopped short of including a mutual defence clause like a similar deal with North Korea.

Mr Trump will be looking for ways to split China, Russia, North Korea and Iran. But this group, termed the new "axis of resistance", will be hoping America's alliances that have helped maintain Western dominance since 1945 will unravel first. ©Reuters

Peter Apps is a columnist for Reuters and author of 'Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of Nato'.

Peter Apps

Reuters global affairs columnist

Peter Apps is Reuters global affairs columnist.

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