If anything, the Feb 1 local poll results paint a clear picture of the future of Thai politics: no party will emerge as the absolute winner in the next national poll in 2027.
In fact, some critics liken the prospective political landscape to The Romance of the Three Kingdoms -- in reference to the Chinese historical novel -- comprising the People's Party (PP), ruling Pheu Thai and coalition partner Bhumjaithai.
Anutin Charnvirakul's Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) effectively dashed the hopes of Pheu Thai's spiritual leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, of scoring a major victory in the Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) polls on Feb 1. With lower-than-expected poll results and winning only 10 of 16 PAO elections, his boast of being able to claim at least 200 seats in 2027 does not look that easy to achieve.
Meanwhile, the BJT has become a solid challenger. While not officially joining the PAO elections, nine candidates affiliated with the party, plus another five in its network, emerged as winners. The PP, while fielding candidates in 17 provinces, won only one seat in Lamphun province.
Despite the overall results, many political pundits viewed the Feb 1 contest as an embarrassment for the ruling party, given Thaksin's role as its lead campaigner. Of the nine provinces in which the former premier chose to rally for Pheu Thai candidates, the party won only five. It could be said the losses of Chiang Rai to the BJT and Lamphun to the PP are too hard for the ruling party to swallow.
Besides, Pheu Thai cannot be fully content with its result in Chiang Mai, Thaksin's hometown, given the tiny margin of victory -- around 20,000 votes; not to mention that it lost one-third of provincial council seats to the PP.
It appears Thaksin's political appeal has been substantially depleted, unlike when he was in power almost two decades ago. The latest round of cash handouts of 10,000 baht to the general populace, dispensed just days prior to the election, did not help much either, as the party still had to engage in a tough fight.
Yet the Pheu Thai has managed to penetrate quite a few of its coalition partner's bases in Isan, for example, Nakhon Phanom, Maha Sarakham, and Sakon Nakhon, while the BJT performed better in the southern region. It could be said the party stands a high chance of becoming a champ in the region, former home of the Democrats, next time round.
Although the BJT may have met its target, it still has a great deal to improve in terms of its performance rather than dwelling on its traditional network. Despite the party having grown stronger and enjoying more success in the most recent national election and provincial polls, it has yet to score highly in the national election and gain more list MPs, a sign of a party's overall popularity.
In order to be on par with its coalition partner, such as Pheu Thai, or reckon with the popular and progressive PP, the BJT needs to concentrate more on policy issues and cater to younger people, particularly those in urban areas.
As mentioned earlier, despite its victory at the PAO polls, Pheu Thai will face a tough challenge to maximise its gains and clinch 200 seats, as Thaksin hopes, in the 2027 national election. The party will have to double down on its extreme populism to attract voters' support.
For the PP, it is incontestable that the below-average voter turnout on Feb 1, or 58% -- as a result of the election taking place on a Saturday instead of a Sunday -- contributed to its losses. Lamphun, where the party's candidate vanquished their rival, saw the highest voter turnout of 73%. However, the party was defeated, albeit by a narrow margin, in the areas where it is traditionally very popular, such as in Rayong, Trat, Samut Prakan and Nonthaburi.
The party will have to work much harder, note the lessons learned and fix its weaknesses, particularly in rural areas where the patron-client system remains strong.
Party members, known for their online media savvy, need to develop more of a personal rapport with voters and engage with communities if they want to reap more votes in the next local elections at both the tambon and municipal levels. These are scheduled to be held within the next few months.
More importantly, with the PP as their "common enemy", Pheu Thai and the BJT cannot break apart from one another. Rather, they must maintain their companionship and further foster their love-hate relationship.
Along the way, scandals like those involving the Alpine golf course land deeds and the Khao Kradong land are no doubt engendering a level of friction or distrust.
But the Romance of the Three Kingdoms situation will continue until the election in 2027 if the House of Representatives completes its term. And no clear winner emerges, the country will have another coalition government to contend with.