The first two weeks of US President Donald Trump's second term were marked by a flurry of directives and executive orders.
While controversial, the deportation of undocumented immigrants -- particularly those with criminal records -- has broad public support. Other Trump initiatives, such as his renewed push to purchase Greenland and regain control of the Panama Canal, have been more polarising.
True to form, Mr Trump has also introduced a raft of new tariffs. Most notably, he followed through on his campaign threats and announced a 10% tariff on imports from China. Before assuming office, Mr Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods.
Mr Trump has also announced plans to impose tariffs on Taiwan-made semiconductors, prompting emergency talks among Taiwanese policymakers. These moves confirm what has long been apparent: geopolitical alliances mean little to Mr Trump unless they serve his immediate interests.
Curiously, Mr Trump has remained silent about Japan and South Korea, America's two major allies in East Asia. Both could find themselves under renewed pressure soon enough, given that Mr Trump has been calling for them to spend more on defence since his first term. For the time being, however, Mr Trump's apparent lack of interest in Japan and South Korea could work in their favour.
It is certainly a relief for South Korea, which is in the midst of a domestic political crisis following the impeachment and arrest of former President Yoon Suk-yeol. Since South Korea does not have a vice president, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo initially stepped in as acting president after Mr Yoon was impeached for briefly declaring martial law. But Mr Han himself was impeached two weeks later, leaving his deputy Choi Sang-mok to assume the roles of acting prime minister and president. Amid this political turmoil, Mr Choi's ability to push back against potential demands from Mr Trump is severely constrained.
The Japanese government, for its part, is treading carefully, seeking to maintain a close relationship with Mr Trump while considering possible concessions to avoid being hit by tariffs. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba congratulated Mr Trump after his victory, but their phone call lasted only five minutes -- a stark contrast to Mr Trump's 12-minute call with then-South Korean President Yoon.
During Mr Trump's first term, Japan's then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe cultivated a strong relationship with the US president, bonding over their shared love of golf and establishing himself as a trusted ally in international forums like the G7. Mr Ishiba, who is not a golfer, lacks this personal rapport, as well as the negotiating skills that led Mr Trump to see Abe as a reliable partner.
Moreover, Abe was a political powerhouse. By securing a historic third term as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, he solidified his image as a strong and popular figure. By contrast, Mr Ishiba has limited influence over the LDP and the Diet. As the head of a minority government, he has expressed a willingness to work with opposition parties to pass key legislation -- an approach that may strike Mr Trump as a sign of weakness. Given Mr Ishiba's tenuous hold on leadership, Japan may come to view Mr Trump's indifference as a blessing.
In an effort to curry favour with the new administration, Japan sent Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya to attend Mr Trump's inauguration ceremony. While there, Mr Iwaya met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. According to the US State Department, the two discussed ways to strengthen bilateral ties and security cooperation, including "joint efforts against China's destabilising actions" in the Indo-Pacific.
But such diplomatic formalities may not be enough to spare Japan from Mr Trump's aggressive trade tactics. The government must prepare to make some concessions when his attention inevitably turns to East Asia. For example, Japan could increase imports of US shale gas and agricultural products, much like China did to ease trade tensions during Mr Trump's first term. Japan is already the top foreign investor in the US, and Japanese businesses will likely be happy to expand their holdings that create jobs there.
While Japan and South Korea have so far stayed off Mr Trump's radar, that could change at any moment. Both should be wary of his tendency first to belittle US allies before acting against them. When the verbal denigration starts, Japanese and South Korean policymakers must be ready to act swiftly and strategically to appease Trump and seize potential economic opportunities -- even if doing so comes at the expense of national pride. ©2025 Project Syndicate
Takatoshi Ito, a former Japanese deputy vice minister of finance, is a professor at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University and a senior professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.