Love him or hate him, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is still a force to be reckoned with.
Most critics say his popularity and influence has waned. Or he has lost his magic, as evidenced by the outcome of the Feb 1 Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) elections held nationwide (except in Bangkok which is governed by a special administrative body).
Let us not forget that the Pheu Thai Party won 10 PAO mayoral seats in 10 out of 16 provinces that it fielded candidates, on top of the 11 seats it had grabbed in earlier PAO elections.
Never forget too that the Bhumjaithai Party, which did not officially contest the elections, won nine seats through candidates with close-knit local ties. The People's Party was routed, winning just one seat, which is a far cry from the 151 parliamentary seats that its defunct predecessor, Move Forward, won in the last general election in May 2023.
Viewed in the context that the Pheu Thai Party failed to win some provinces where Thaksin campaigned vigorously, such as in Chiang Rai and Si Sa Ket, critics may be right in concluding the former prime minister has lost his political magic.
In their opinion, he should have done a better job, but he didn't.
However, on the flip side, bearing in mind that Thaksin has been away from Thailand for 17 years in self-imposed exile and millions of young voters barely know him, and middle-aged voters under 40 were too young when he was at the peak of his political career, winning 10 PAO mayoral seats in 10 out of 16 provinces contested is quite an achievement.
After the party was dethroned by the Move Forward, now People's, Party in the last general election, he is now trying to stage a political comeback to restore the Pheu Thai Party to its former glory.
However, the path of his political comeback is hardly paved with roses. The main obstacle is the constitution, Articles 96-98 regarding eligibility, which rule him out from standing after he was sentenced to prison in three cases.
Two bills, one proposed by Pheu Thai and the other by the People's Party would pave the way for a drafting assembly to draw up a new constitution.
This would give Thaksin a chance to make a political comeback, with no further need to pull the strings guiding his daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who remains widely viewed by critics as immature and unqualified for the top post.
The two charter amendment bills are slated for debate in parliament on Thursday and Friday. But the chances of the bills, likely to be merged into one, being passed by parliament are slim.
The first thing is the current charter was crafted in such a way as to make amending it an uphill task. Approval of any amendment bill requires one-third of the Senate and 20% of the opposition MPs, as well as more than half of the overall number of votes cast. Moreover, the bill must go through a "double majority" referendum process.
Getting support from the opposition parties is no problem as the People's Party has more than enough votes. That party, too, wants its key members, among them the leaders of the defunct Future Forward and Move Forward parties, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, Pita Limjaroenrat and Chaithawat Tulathon, to be freed from the "shackles" imposed by the Constitutional Court, barring them from contesting elections for 10 years.
But getting the support of one-thirds of the 200 senators or 67 votes may prove to be a tough nut to crack as many of them, the so-called blue senators, are closely connected to the Bhumjaithai Party which will be the main rival to the Pheu Thai Party in the next general elections about two years from now.
Does Bhumjaithai want Thaksin to come back while its leader Anutin Charnvirakul also aspires to be the next prime minister? No way.
Lately, both parties were at loggerheads over whether it should be the Provincial Electricity Authority or the National Security Council that orders electricity, fuel and internet cuts to Myanmar's border townships.
In fact, no progress was made until Prime Minister Paetongtarn stepped in, probably prodded by Thaksin, and ordered Mr Anutin and Phumtham Wechayachai, deputy prime minister for security affairs, to cut the utility supplies before she left for China to celebrate the 50th anniversary of relations between the two countries.
Besides the charter hurdle, Thaksin still has to deal with another headache of his own making which may stymie his political comeback.
That was his refusal to serve his jail term in prison. He stayed on the 14th floor of Police General Hospital for six months on the grounds he was suffering life-threatening health conditions.
The Medical Council is wrapping its probe into the ethical conduct of the doctors who vouched for his (apparently) pseudo illness. The outcome does not look good for those who vouched for him.
Thaksin has been untouchable since his comeback for over a year now, but he is invincible politically, as witnessed in the PAO elections.
The political landscape has changed and he needs to do more to reach out to a new generation of voters.
Meanwhile, the government of his daughter will have to produce more tangible achievements to prove its worthiness to remain in office for another term under her or his reign.
And that too assumes there is no further political fallout from his controversial and unpopular policies such as MoU 44 and legalisation of online gambling.
Veera Prateepchaikul is former editor, Bangkok Post.