Can Malaysia and China help secure Asia's food future? A landmark agreement signed between the two nations late last year aims to do just that.
Marking a milestone in their 50-year diplomatic relationship, the agreement could reshape their domestic food security landscapes, building on recent trade agreements. As Asean Chair in 2025, Malaysia can also develop policies for regional food security, reinforcing its commitment to inter-regional cooperation. Though full details are yet to be revealed, the agreement presents opportunities for both nations to collaborate in securing food supplies.
Trade relations between China and Malaysia have flourished, reaching nearly US$98 billion (3.3 trillion baht) between January and November 2024 alone. Agricultural trade remains a key driver of this. This trade is mutually beneficial. The interdependence of their agricultural sectors highlights the importance of a stable, cooperative trade relationship to ensure food security for both nations.
Agriculture contributes 11.6% to Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) and employs 1.87 million people. In China, agriculture, employing 177 million people, accounts for 16.24% of the GDP.
Food security has become urgent for both China and Malaysia, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions, and supply chain challenges. These factors have pushed both nations to prioritise self-sufficiency in food production and reduce reliance on global trade.
However, boosting local food production is hindered by population shifts, demographic changes, and limited arable land and water resources. Climate shocks worsen these challenges.
The impact of climate change on food security is stark. Notably, in 2022, a severe drought in China's Yangtze River basin, a major rice-growing area, affected 2.2 million hectares of arable land. Adding to concerns, studies show that climate change and ozone pollution reduced China's crop yield by 10% (55 million tonnes annually) between 1981 and 2010, highlighting long-term vulnerabilities.
Malaysia has also faced climate-related setbacks. The 2021 and 2022 floods caused $30.87 million in agricultural, fisheries, and livestock losses. The November-December 2024 floods led to additional damage, including an estimated $2 million in losses from rice plantation destruction. Local media reports noted that this forced the country to increase rice imports.
Projections are grim. Research shows that temperature increases and changing rainfall patterns could reduce Malaysia's rice yield by up to 31% by 2030.
As Malaysia and China face growing concerns over food import reliance, food security and self-sufficiency have become urgent priorities. In 2022, Malaysia imported about 60% of its food. The three biggest suppliers were China (11.5%), Argentina (10.4%) and Thailand (9.2%). The country's food self-sufficiency rate for key commodities like rice was 62.6%, while vegetables stood at a lower 44.7%.
Similarly, China's self-sufficiency ratio has sharply declined from 93.6% in 2000 to 65.8% in 2020. Projections indicate a further drop to 58.8% by 2030. Since 2004, China has shifted from a net exporter to a net importer. Most food imports are from Brazil (24.85%), the US (13.96%), and Thailand (5.60%). To address these challenges, Malaysia and China should explore collaborative solutions. Taking inspiration from the Joint Center for Food Security and Sustainable Agricultural Development established between the University of Sydney and Peking University, the two nations could set up research centres focused on key staples like rice, wheat, and climate-resilient crops.
These centres would bring together researchers, academics, and agribusinesses from both countries to support agricultural innovation amid climate volatility.
Nonetheless, issues like differences in agricultural practices, infrastructure, resource allocation, and political priorities must be addressed to ensure the success of such collaborative initiatives.
As the 2025 Asean Chair, Malaysia could propose the establishment of Asean+1 food research and development centres in collaboration with China. This initiative would enhance regional food security by developing and testing agricultural technologies, sharing case studies, and offering best practices tailored to local contexts. However, challenges such as limited research funding, geopolitical disagreements, and varying technological needs may hinder progress.
International collaboration could also strengthen food security further. Australia, an agricultural powerhouse and regional partner, offers valuable lessons. Between 2007 and 2020, Australia boosted wheat yields by 14% through advanced technology and better management practices. This is one example providing a model for both Malaysia and China to enhance food production resilience amid climate challenges. Yet, issues remain, including limited access to cutting-edge technology, disparities in agricultural infrastructure, and resistance to new farming practices due to financial constraints and traditional methods.
As climate-related challenges continue, Malaysia and China's collaboration on agricultural innovation and food security can set a regional precedent, ensuring a more resilient and self-sufficient future for their agricultural sectors.
Genevieve Donnellon-May is an independent researcher. She is a fellow at the Indo-Pacific Studies Center and sits on the advisory board of Modern Diplomacy. She is a 2023 CSIS Pacific Forum Young Leader.