Thailand's recent decision to cut electricity and other fuel to Myanmar has had far-reaching ramifications along the Thai-Myanmar and Thai-Cambodian borders. Indeed, it will also impact geopolitics in the region and beyond.
It took tripartite action involving Bangkok, Beijing, and Nay Pyi Taw to push out some scammer operators along the areas controlled by armed ethnic organisations along the porous border. Thai authorities estimate that at least 20,000 to 30,000 people from well over two dozen countries are working or trapped in online scam operations and other transnational crime activities along the Thai-Myanmar border.
It cannot go on without saying that the proliferation of scammers started during the transition from the Prayut administration to the Pheu Thai government. During his one-year tenure, former PM Srettha Thavisin had largely ignored national security issues, especially border management. The non-demarcated 2,401 kilometres quickly became free-flow transit points for criminals. Mr Srettha focused only on tourism and investment promotion. Visa exemptions and the suspension of the TM6 form, which helps trace biometrics and residence data, have increased the influx of foreign visitors to Thailand. That may explain why officials and even embassies have not been able to trace tourists who crossed the border into Myawaddy.
Last week, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra defended her government's policy to maintain the visa-free scheme, insisting tourists who came to Thailand were not part of scamming operations. That is largely correct, but she did not realise that many potential workers and scammers passed through Thailand unnoticed. The failure of the Immigration Bureau to upgrade its software to link all biometric data also worsened the problem. After a year of visa-free travel, Immigration is expected to complete upgrading biometric data and related software in May.
Since the beginning of 2023, scammers have set up centres along the country's western border after being chased out from northern Myanmar. However, to Thailand's east at Poi Pet, Cambodia, scam operators started in 2022 after their centres in Sihanoukville were shut down.
Following the recent power cut-offs, the government is now focusing on Chiang Rai, Tak and Kanchanaburi and adjacent areas, as well as along the Thailand-Cambodia border in Chanthaburi and Sa Kaeo. In recent weeks, Bangkok-based diplomats have sought further information about the nature of scam operations, which involve money laundering, human trafficking and online gambling.
Scam operations will be on the agenda at the upcoming Asean-related summit in Kuala Lumpur on May 25-26. Among the points to be covered is how the situation reflects Nay Pyi Taw's loss of territorial control over its border areas. The Asean chair will want to jump-start political dialogue among all stakeholders to stop the fighting and suffering of the Myanmar people. If the current situation persists, the scammers can move their operations to areas controlled by different armed groups. They have high mobility and use solar energy and diesel generators. Thailand's next step is to ban solar panels and generator exports entirely.
Although the current attention is focused on the West, over on the Thailand-Cambodia frontier, the government has failed to suppress similar operations, which have been known to Thai authorities for quite a while. Close cooperation with Cambodia is pivotal to cracking down on these illegal activities as Phnom Penh controls the Poi Pet area opposite Tha Kham of Aranyaprathet district in Sa Kaeo.
Last week, the National Telecommunication Commission suspended the internet and lowered the signal strength of mobile phones to disrupt scam operations there. Police also toughened checkpoint inspections along the border and in parking areas with high walls, which could be used as mobile scams and recruitment centres. Before the power cut on Myanmar's side, hundreds of scammers over the past few weeks were able to escape the police and immigration dragnet and cross borders to other neighbouring countries.
The so-called "Seal Stop Scam" campaign's success will depend on an integrated approach by Thai agencies. While the current measures will temporarily halt scammer operations, the authorities must act quickly to pre-empt scammers' relocation efforts. For instance, in the adjacent areas of Tak, Kanchanaburi and Chiang Rai, scam operators still actively move from one place to another in the areas controlled by ethnic armed groups. In Poi Pet, Cambodia, scammers have already moved away from the targeted 25-storey and 18-storey buildings to nearby areas in Banteay Meanchey, opposite Surin province. The suspension of power remains a topic of discussion.
On the Myanmar side, Thailand has tactfully engaged with the Border Guard Force and the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army, as both sides do not want to engage in conflict. Their leaders have committed to tossing out scam centre gangs from their controlled territories. They also requested Thailand's cooperation as they pledged to deliver 10,000 foreign victims in phases -- 500 people daily beginning last weekend. In the case of the Chinese, Beijing has been granted permission to operate special repatriating flights.
Amid it all, Thailand and China have been working in tandem in suppressing scam centre operators. Beijing understands the sensitivity of this joint effort and has maintained a low profile despite its significant contribution in providing data on the operators and their accomplices from both countries. Two senior Thai police were recently transferred to Bangkok from Tak, pending further investigations of alleged links with human trafficking and gambling in Myanmar.
Ms Paetongtarn recently said that Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed concerns over Thai plans to develop entertainment complexes which include casino components. Mr Xi highlighted potential risks associated with casinos. In response, she assured China that the proposed complexes would focus primarily on entertainment, with casinos comprising less than 10% of the projects. She said Thailand would carefully consider China's perspective in its development plans. China fears that casinos can be fronts for money laundering. As a matter of policy, China has adhered to its "three no policies": no casinos within its borders (excluding the special administrative region of Macau), no promotion of gambling activities, and no participation of Chinese citizens in gambling activities abroad.
This year, cross-border crime and economic policies will dominate Thai-China relations, which are commemorating their 50th anniversary. It remains to be seen how these ties will be recalibrated in the future.
Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs.