Regardless of official spin, the government's decision to deport 40 Uyghurs to China was a strategic mistake on multiple levels.
The ill-considered move undermined Thailand's geostrategic balancing between the two most consequential superpowers, compromised its autonomy vis-à-vis China, violated international practices and domestic legislation, and further diminished the country's global standing.
Moving forward, Thailand will be hard-pressed to navigate the treacherous terrain of international affairs amidst what is looking more and more like an open global geoeconomic war. The deportation itself wreaks of foul play. Under darkness in the wee hours, trucks with covered windows surreptitiously sped into the downtown Immigration Detention Centre to ferret out the Uyghurs to waiting planes at Don Mueang airport north of Bangkok. Decoy vehicles were deployed to mislead reporters who had caught wind of what was going on. Traffic around the airport became clogged as police blocked roads for the speeding vans to get to the Chinese plane. And off went the Uyghurs back to China, where they had fled from persecution in the predominantly Muslim Xinjiang region 11 years ago.
The government then went into shoddy crisis management mode. The national police chief kept insisting the Uyghurs finally got to return home to be with their families. Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai said no third country was willing to resettle the Uyghurs over the past decade, a claim which is disputed. By her own admission, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra insisted Chinese authorities assured her the Uyghurs would be safe, that Thai officials were allowed onsite access to verify their safety. What appeared like arranged media optics then showed the arriving Uyghurs happily reuniting with their families and loved ones.
The whole charade added insult to injury and offended the collective intelligence of those who have been following the Uyghurs' ordeal. After they sought refuge in Thailand -- a country that used to serve as a safe haven for regional dissidents and others under unjust persecution from their repressive home governments -- some 109 Uyghurs were forcefully sent back to China in July 2015 under Thailand's post-coup military government which seized power in May 2014.
One month later, an apparent act of terrorist bombing reprisal at the Erawan Shrine in downtown Bangkok claimed 20 lives and injured 125, scaring off tourists for months. Now the Thai government has inflicted similar reprisal risks on the country. Travel alerts were issued by foreign embassies in Bangkok, including those of the US and Japan. Even Chinese tour operators were fearful of revenge attacks. The national police chief announced a heightened alert at key tourism areas. Thailand counts on tourism for close to 20% of its national income. The aftermath of the Uyghur debacle will be costly to the economy.
On legal and moral grounds, the government also appears to have violated international "non-refoulement" practice whereby decent and self-respecting countries do not knowingly send back foreign nationals to governments which chased them away in the first place. In addition, a recent Thai domestic legislation -- the Prevention and Suppression of Torture and Enforced Disappearance Act 2022 -- prohibits torture, forced disappearance and refoulement.
The fate of the doomed Uyghurs will now be unknown to outsiders. They would not have run away from China had they not been persecuted. While the earlier forced return of their countrymen in 2015 took place when Thailand had a military government, the elected government of Ms Paetongtarn enjoys sufficient international legitimacy without the need to attract international controversy and criticism.
It was poor diplomacy on Thailand's part to let the Chinese authorities have their way. Apart from the Uyghurs, the recent crackdown on scam centres along border areas between Thailand and Myanmar also showed who was in charge. Since the Thai security apparatus could not rescue Chinese nationals in the scam ring, China sent a vice minister on security affairs to personally oversee the operation. Hundreds of Chinese victims were thereby set free and transported on Chinese flights to return home.
Worse, Thai-US relations under President Donald Trump's second administration will now get off on the wrong foot. To the limited extent the Trump administration has Thailand on its radar, Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned the Uyghur case during his confirmation hearing on Jan 15. Three weeks later, Ms Paetongtarn met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. The Uyghurs became a pawn and an early shot across the bow between the US and China, with Thailand in the middle. Given that Mr Rubio defended the Uyghurs' rights not to be persecuted in no uncertain terms, the Chinese leadership likely pressured the Thai prime minister, who was dwarfed in personal stature and also country size. Going to the dragon's den should have required deft diplomacy beforehand to find out what kind of concessions and trade-offs were to be discussed.
In the event, the Chinese got their way again with Thailand and indirectly with the US. When the Trump administration eventually conducts direct dealings with Thailand, the Uyghurs' deportation will likely be front and centre. It bodes ill that Thailand is 11th on the list of countries holding trade surpluses with the US to the tune of 46 billion dollars. It is not uncommon for smaller countries to have little leverage vis-à-vis the US under the second Trump term.
This is why smaller countries try to stay away from Mr Trump's tariff wrath. Thailand's geostrategic interest is not about kowtowing to US preferences but it is also not about catering to Chinese demands. The Paetongtarn government unnecessarily compromised Thailand's navigational tools and limited bargaining chips. Now it will require even savvier diplomacy for Thailand to regain geostrategic balance between the clashing superpowers.