There is a blessing in disguise in the uncertainties caused by the "American First" policy by US President Donald Trump. That is, the long-awaited US-Russia détente has finally happened, removing the dark clouds hovering over the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' (Asean) ties with Eurasia's superpower since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The strained relations have impeded the political and security cooperation between the regional bloc and Russia.
President Trump's unorthodox foreign policy has upended existing norms and diplomatic practices. This emerging trend will certainly dominate the Asean leaders' agenda when they meet in May as well as at the scheduled summits with the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council and China.
Mr Trump's friendly new attitude towards Russian President Vladimir Putin could lead to rejuvenated ties between Asean and Russia. Current diplomatic cooperation between Russia and the bloc is bland and traditional economic, educational, cultural and development cooperation.
Despite the positive outlook, it remains to be seen whether the current US-Russia rapprochement will last long enough to make a meaningful impact in Southeast Asia. The region has emerged as a major battleground for superpower rivalries.
In more ways than one, Asean has been quite successful in maintaining balanced ties with the two superpowers during the Cold War and its aftermath.
It must be said that Asean has always been extremely cautious in engaging Russia to ensure that it would not upset the balance of power or draw American angst.
Since Russia became a full dialogue partner in 1996, Asean-Russia relations could be described as slow but steady.
Kudos goes to Russia, as it was among the first dialogue partners to set up the Asean Studies Centre in 2010. However, Russia took nearly 10 years to appoint an envoy to the Asean Secretariat.
In comparison, China, which entered the Asean circuit at the same time as Russia, has deepened its ties far beyond those of Russia in all cooperation schemes. Beijing was the first to sign the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in 2003, concluding the Asean-China Free Trade Agreement in 2000. Furthermore, its status was upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2021.
Indeed, today, Russia is the only great power with lacklustre ties to Asean. Russia is the bloc's only dialogue partner to have had its 10-year action plans halved in later years due to incomplete implementation; Asean has just completed the five-year action plan (2026-2030) with Russia. Moscow has not yet been elevated to a bloc comprehensive strategic partner (CSP).
China, Australia, India, the US, Japan, and South Korea are currently Asean CSPs. New Zealand will become the newest CSP at the year-end summit in Kuala Lumpur. Russia has already applied for the upgrade, but the bloc's leaders have not yet reached a consensus.
Interestingly, Asean members have treated US-Russia ties separately from their overall engagement with China. The Asean members' diverse positions on the Ukraine-Russia conflict testify to the bloc's non-alignment policy. The improved US-Russia ties will also reduce the pressure for Asean to choose a side.
That said, warmer ties between the US and Russia will provide room for Asean to interact more with Moscow. Among all the Asean-led mechanisms, new dynamics can be expected. Many American strategists and think tanks view improved ties with Russia as pivotal for the US to compete with China.
Looking ahead, two dark spots still taint Asean-Russia relations. First, Russia is the biggest arms supplier to Nay Pyi Taw. Over the past three years, Russia has deepened its ties with the junta, which has killed more than 6,000 people and displaced 3.5 million inside the country.
Moscow is still sceptical about the Asean 5-point peace plan. It pays only lip service to the bloc's peace efforts as it has not taken any tangible steps to encourage the regime to comply with the peace plan.
In addition, Russia is not supportive of the Asean Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, arguing that it is an extension of the American grand strategy in the broader Asia-Pacific region. Without a more cooperative stance, Moscow is unlikely to earn trust from Asean. Other dialogue partners welcome the AOIP and pledge to cooperate with its priorities. China has also been more pragmatic and signed a joint statement of cooperation with Asean within the AOIP framework in 2022.
The new Asean chair, Malaysia, has already invited Mr Putin to attend the Asean summit later this year. With the improvement in US-Russia relations, it could be a historic moment if both Mr Trump and Mr Putin were to attend the East Asia Summit. Over the years, their foreign ministers have regularly attended Asean-related summits on behalf of their leaders. Notably, Mr Putin attended the bloc's summit in Singapore in 2008 when Moscow's status was upgraded to a strategic partnership.
For the time being, it is still too early to determine how Russia will recalibrate its Asean policy. As a co-founder of Brics, Russia can play a key role in promoting engagement between Asean and Brics as a whole and individually. In January, Indonesia became the first Asean nation to join Brics. Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam were granted the status of Brics partners last year. Malaysia could be the next to join the group. The current Brics chair, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been invited to attend the year-end Asean Summit.
With the unpredictable geopolitical landscape, Asean has to simultaneously engage the world's three big powers, which have starkly different strategic interests in the region. Therefore, Asean faces a formidable challenge as the trio can unilaterally shift positions and support at any given time. The bloc must have a clear vision to avoid being a pawn in their strategic competition.