Dialogue between the Thai government and Malay separatists marked its 12-year anniversary on Feb 28, but violence in the southernmost provinces remains an open wound on the Thai body politic. A dreadful routine of bombings, shootings and clashes in these provinces has killed some 7,680 people since 2004, yet the simmering violence goes largely unnoticed outside the region.
The peace dialogue, facilitated by Malaysia, seeks to end the insurgency by Barisan Revolusi Nasional Melayu Patani (BRN), or what it calls an anti-colonial struggle against the Thai state. The dialogue has come to a standstill under the current government. Recent moves by each side to explore a reduction in violence during the holy month of Ramadan offered some hope that dialogue might soon resume, but fresh militant attacks are a reminder that a cessation of hostilities is more often an effect of peace talks than a precondition. The parties, with the facilitator's help, must get back to the negotiation table.
On Feb 23, Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai told reporters that the government wanted Ramadan to be free of violent incidents as "proof" of the militants' capacity to "stop creating violence". Then, on Feb 28, two days before the start of Ramadan, the National Security Council issued a statement that the government would "adjust its work missions by focusing on peaceful operations". Despite its innocuous language, the statement affirmed a unilateral reduction of hostilities during Ramadan.
Thai officials say that they apprised the BRN through various channels that they would suspend offensive operations during Ramadan this year and that they expected the BRN to reciprocate in exchange for resuming dialogue. According to a senior BRN delegation member, the group received this message. In early March, the BRN expressed to the facilitator its readiness to conduct a bilateral ceasefire -- though for a shorter duration -- under certain conditions, including the formation of a monitoring mechanism.
To be sure, the Thai and BRN proposals are distinct, and there is presently no agreement on a "ceasefire", but they indicate an inclination on both sides to act in the interest of resuming talks.
The conflict is at a delicate juncture, with the fate of dialogue in the balance. First, the official dialogue has been suspended since the seventh plenary round of talks in February last year, which itself followed a year-long hiatus. At those talks, the parties were expected to sign the Joint Comprehensive Plan Toward Peace, or JCPP, a framework that provides for a reduction of violence, a process of public consultation in the southernmost provinces, and a political solution. The BRN's delegation declined to sign, citing the need to refine certain points. This left the Thai delegation perplexed, given their understanding that the parties had already reached an agreement in earlier informal talks.
Second, since coming to office in August last year, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has appeared reluctant to resume dialogue amid vehement criticism of the process from some academics and former officials, who argue that the talks unduly legitimise the BRN. Ms Paetongtarn has not yet appointed a delegation, likely fearing that conservative opponents will use the dialogue as a political cudgel. In January, Mr Phumtham announced a review of policies on the deep South; results are pending.
Third, the BRN issued a rare statement in December warning of the potential for greater violence if the Thai government failed to evince seriousness in seeking a settlement. Militants have since stepped up attacks, including an audacious assault on Saturday on the district office in Sungai Kolok that killed two and wounded fourteen, including civilians. These attacks signify the BRN's rejection of the government's premise that a ceasefire should precede talks.
Finally, Malaysia this year chairs the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean), and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim appears determined to invigorate regional peacemaking efforts, including for southernmost Thailand. On July 1, 2024, Mr Anwar appointed a new facilitator, Datuk Haji Mohd Rabin bin Basir, who has encouraged informal contact between the parties. In December, prime ministers Paetongtarn and Anwar issued a joint statement that noted the importance of the JCPP as the basis for further dialogue and confidence building. Also in December, Mr Anwar appointed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra as an informal adviser on Asean issues during Malaysia's chairmanship. Thaksin is Ms Paetongtarn's father and wields considerable influence in her government. Thaksin visited the southernmost provinces on Feb 23 and offered an apology for mistakes in handling the insurgency when he was prime minister (2001-2006). The apology did not satisfy everyone, but it appears to have been an effort to create an atmosphere more conducive to talks.
Against this backdrop, recent BRN attacks underscore the need for resuming dialogue aimed at reducing violence and ending the conflict. Malaysia has a vital role to play in encouraging both sides to get back to regular exchanges. There is urgency to this task. On both sides, those who disapprove of dialogue are looking for pretexts to sink the talks. Decision-makers on either side of the table need to summon the courage to lead in the interest of resolving a conflict that has gone on too long and at too great a cost.
Without such leadership, the fate of Thailand's deep South will fall to those prepared to witness another 20 years of violence rather than countenance compromise.
Matt Wheeler is International Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for South East Asia.