It is both exciting and alarming to be a student of international affairs as the world is being turned upside down. In just two months, the second administration of President Donald J Trump has sent shockwaves rippling through the international system as the United States pulls back from its role as leader, underwriter, and guardian of the nearly 80-year-old international order that it instrumentally constructed after WWII. In view of the US's portentous withdrawal, relative anarchy in the international system is back with a vengeance, leaving Asean members and smaller states elsewhere to fend for themselves in a self-help geostrategic environment.
Although it is understandable, the global fixation with Donald Trump is misplaced and misguided. President Trump certainly has taken a raft of measures that have led to the incipient breakdown of international order as it has been known for decades. Doubling down on measures under his first administration in 2017-21, President Trump has taken the US out of international organisations and agreements, such as the World Health Organization, the United Nations Human Rights Council, and the Paris Climate Agreement, while halting funds to the UN Relief and Works Agency and stopping the US Agency for International Development from operations.
On the other hand, the Trump administration's threats and actual imposition of tariffs against hitherto trade partners have undermined the World Trade Organisation and spelt the end of the liberal rules-based multilateral trading system. Other measures, such as anti-immigration at home and visa restrictions abroad, further fuelled the flames of American nativism, isolationism, and economic nationalism.
Mr Trump's astonishing rapid-fire executive orders, appointments of hawkish policymakers and unilateral policy manoeuvres engender a degree of disbelief that harks back to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. When the pandemic began, it was initially hard to believe lockdowns, closed borders, and travel bans would become the norm. When it did, at least we could see how it would eventually bottom out as masks came into use and vaccines into focus. For the international system, there is no bottoming out that can be seen at this time. What we are seeing will definitely get much worse.
Yet it would be a mistake to see Mr Trump as an aberration and a standalone. He is merely the manifestation and culmination of long-simmering undercurrents that date back to the 1970s and 80s domestic "culture war" in the US between liberalism and conservatism and between internationalism and isolationism after the Cold War. It was a debate between "making the world a better place" and "making America great again". Making the world a better place to American conservatives like President George W Bush meant imperialism and foreign interventions, while to American liberals, such as President Barack Obama, it was about promoting rights, freedoms, and ideals around the world.
The US is now in the midst of a 50-year swing of pendulum representing its soul back the other way towards isolationism, unilateralism, and nationalism in a reinvention to make itself great again by undoing the international system and re-stacking and remaking it in its favour and image. In the US socio-political order, the isolationists are now back on top, just like they were in the 1920s and 30s and even the late 19th century. The transformative, profound and cyclical swings of American socio-political life every 50 years or so are deeply consequential for the international system.
In the midst of convulsions we are seeing in Europe, where Russia, as the invading bigger power, is bullying and taking territory from smaller Ukraine, the Europeans of the European Union are ill-equipped to put a stop to Russian aggression without US assistance. After the European theatre ends up with some kind of settlement under US oversight, Mr Trump will likely turn his focus more fully to the Indo-Pacific. The big question is whether he will make a grand deal with China like he is doing with Russia and hang the rest of Asia out to dry. Or end up in full confrontation with Beijing for ultimate supremacy and the reshaping of a new global setup.
America's inward turn is the primary reason international order is breaking down dramatically because Washington has been its chief architect and guarantor. The consequent tyranny of anarchy is forcing middle and smaller states to shuffle and shift in need of deft footwork and footprints. Those countries that are well-led, internally cohesive and geo-strategically agile, such as Singapore, will be able to handle and adjust more astutely to maintain their national interests, compared to others that are poorly led and structurally polarised with elite capture such as Thailand.
In this light, the best way ahead for smaller states is to stick together in cooperation with middle powers. Southeast Asian countries are lucky to have a regional organisation in Asean. Despite its shortcomings and splits on salient issues ranging from the US-China conflict and Myanmar's military coup in 2021 and subsequent civil war to Russian aggression and the conflicts in the Middle East, Asean now needs Asean more than ever.
We are now witnessing the onset of an open geoeconomic war as the Trump administration's reciprocal and retaliatory tariffs and protectionist measures beget countermeasures from partners and allies in a tit-for-tat, "beggar-thy-neighbour" fashion reminiscent of the interwar years in the 1930s. The concomitant defence budget increases across Europe and Asia, as Mr Trump is demanding of allies and partners, will likely lead to a rearmament across the global chessboard.
This is not yet a time to sound alarm bells but to pursue insurance policies, contingency plans, and alternative alliances. Asean member states must hang tight together and not allow either the US or China to divide and break them up. Asean also needs to reach out to other like-minded middle powers, particularly Japan and South Korea. The role of the Asean chair and secretariat is now more crucial.
Intra-regional trade and investment and supply-chain connectivity are the way ahead, in addition to bolstering and expanding the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership within wider Asia. As the CPTPP now includes the United Kingdom, it should open up for accession from other qualified Asean member states because the geoeconomic war will likely intensify, and the broader geostrategic environment will get worse.