Two powerful earthquakes jolted and devastated Myanmar, causing widespread death and destruction for a country already reeling from the effects of ongoing civil conflict. The M7.7 quakes created stunning devastation in central Myanmar as well as in neighbouring Thailand, killing more than 2,000 people and damaging the storied city of Mandalay.
Ominously the earthquake came a day after Myanmar's ruler Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, a man accused of war crimes, delivered a defiant speech in the capital city to mark Armed Forces Day.
But the reverberations from the earthquakes go beyond the natural tragedy; political aftershocks are likely to jolt the Southeast Asian country which has been gripped by long standing ethnic conflict as well as the widening rebellion against a Beijing-backed military regime which seized power four years ago.
Not surprisingly, the Myanmar military has continued carrying out airstrikes on suspected rebel positions not far from the epicentre of the natural disaster in Mandalay. Using mostly Chinese and Russian jets, the military hits vulnerable towns amid the chaos.
The UN's Special Rapporteur for Myanmar Tom Andrews told the BBC that it was "nothing short of incredible" that the military was continuing to "drop bombs when you are trying to rescue people" after the earthquake.
Myanmar sits on a tectonic and political fault line, both geologically and geopolitically. The earthquake-prone country rests astride the convergence of four tectonic plates, the Eurasian plate, the Indian plate, the Sunda plate and the Burma plate all of which are in movement.
Equally the former British colony has faced the assertive power of neighbouring China who had long meddled in Myanmar politics. From 1962 until 2011, the country was run by a string of Beijing-backed military regimes. Only with the advent of the democratic but flawed government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2016 did Myanmar regain a civilian government, again to be overthrown by the current military rulers who seized power in 2021.
Like the aforementioned tectonic plates, there are four primary crises inside predominantly Buddhist Myanmar. First, the long running ethnic conflicts with the Shan and Karen communities, both Christian and long in rebellion to any central government. Second, the brutal ethnic cleansing against the Muslim Rohingya people starting with massive expulsions of 700,000 people into Bangladesh in 2017. Third, the civil resistance and widening rebellion of ethnic groups against the regime. Fourth, China's hidden hand in Myanmar backing corrupt and ruthless military regimes.
China's Belt and Road (BRI) hosts significant components in Burma with building a railway, pipeline and port to the south on the Bay of Bengal. Nonetheless, Beijing understands its client regime may be slipping in power and may choose to deal with the myriad of Myanmar's ethnic militias to keep control. The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor offers the shortest route for China to the Indian Ocean ending at the deep sea port of Kyaukphyu. Nonetheless despite grandiose plans, construction results have been shoddy and incomplete.
Prior to the earthquake, military analysts stated that the Myanmar military only controls about a quarter of the Texas-sized country.
Now there's an acute humanitarian disaster. The umbrella of United Nations relief agencies as well as neighbouring states have sprung into action. The UN's resident humanitarian coordinator stated, "The earthquake struck at a time which Myanmar is already reeling from an alarming crisis, largely driven by persistent conflict and recurrent disasters."
Significantly Myanmar's self-appointed ruler, General Min Aung Hlaing, chief of the powerful Tatmadaw has called for international assistance to help in the aftermath of the quake. While this is logical, a previous military regime back in 2008, had resisted and blocked international assistance to the stricken country in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis which caused widespread flooding and killed at least 138,000 people!
At the time the UN was literally begging to help; I recall former Secretary General Ban Ki-moon making impassioned pleas to assist a country which callously looked the other way until it was too late. Myanmar's socialist rulers traditionally played the card of "self-reliance" to the outside world causing deeper anguish and suffering for their own population.
Now humanitarian assistance is flowing in from neighbours like Thailand, India and China as well as from the United States, Japan, Australia and Europe. Agonisingly slow reconstruction amid conflict, where infrastructure and hospitals must be repaired from the quake's chaos appears to be the next step.
But when aid starts arriving it should be focused on helping the stricken population, not handed directly to reinforce the corrupt military government.
John J Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defence issues.
