China's growing naval power is regularly and systematically harassing the waters around Taiwan in what appears to be rehearsal exercises for a future invasion of the self-ruled democratic island. Units of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), as well as swarms of military aircraft, regularly probe the waters and skies near Taiwan, often crossing into the island's sovereign airspace and waters.
This is not a drill, nor does it signify an imminent attack, but an aggressive "grey zone" operation.
Yet the size and scope of the plans seem to go beyond Beijing's bullying over the past few years and now extend to more active measures. As always China's excuse is simple; it claims the island as a part of the People's Republic of China (PRC) and is increasingly nervous that Taiwan's fiercely democratic government is allegedly pushing the "Taiwan independence issue," long a red line to Beijing's Marxist Mandarins, not to mention the US State Department.
Taiwan's President William Lai has not formally called for "formal independence", but naturally supports a larger international profile and space for the island's 23 million people.
"The joint exercise and training conducted by the Eastern Theater of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) in the vicinity of Taiwan Island is a resolute punishment for the Lai authorities' rampant 'independence' provocations,'" China's Taiwan Affairs Office warned. A slick video of a poster accompanying the drills titled "Closing In," depicting Chinese forces surrounding the island, was released by Beijing's Eastern Command.
Following the Chinese civil war, which ended in 1949, Mao's communist forces seized the mainland while the Nationalist troops retrenched to the island of Taiwan. Since that time, two separate de facto and fundamentally different governments have ruled their respective territories, both adhering to the convenient myth of one China. The Republic of China on Taiwan formerly supported the position of "One China" with different interpretations.
Any rhetorical tampering with Taiwan's official name or status quo remains a political lightning rod to the Chinese Communist Party, which sees red over the island's growing assertiveness.
China has never renounced the use of military force to bring Taiwan "back to the Motherland."
In its Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, the US states that China is using complex campaigns "featuring coercive military, economic and influence operations short of war to assert its positions and strengths against others, reserving more destructive tools for full-scale conflict." The study adds, "Beijing will likely expand these campaigns to advance unification with Taiwan."
Still, this action in early April was unique; carrier-based aircraft participated in the exercises. This was planned to intimidate Taiwan and to rehearse complicated carrier operations for launching and retrieving aircraft. Though China has three aircraft carriers, it has neither the capacity nor experience to maintain sustained flight operations. Nonetheless, China's navy operates nearby Taiwan, just 128km off the mainland coast, not halfway around the world as are the US Navy carrier battle groups.
The PLAN carrier Shandong and its escort vessels were operating in the Philippine Sea hundreds of kilometres southeast of Taiwan; a combination of fighter and bomber jets, UAVs and helicopters circled Taiwan. In one day, 76 PLA aircraft, 15 PLAN ships and four official ships were detected operating around Taiwan with 37 sorties crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait. Significantly, many aircraft originated from the Shandong, not mainland bases, as previously.
Contrary to other East Asian allies such as Japan and South Korea, the US no longer maintains a military defence treaty with Taiwan; President Jimmy Carter abrogated the agreement in 1979 at the start of diplomatic relations and widening economic trade with the PRC.
Three key points emerge:
1. Despite not having a formal defence treaty or diplomatic ties with Taiwan, the US must maintain credible military ties with it.
2. Tariffs on Taiwan pose a challenge but an investment and procurement opportunity.
3. Taiwan must significantly upgrade its defence profile. Creative diplomacy would swap US tariffs for increased Taiwan investment in purchasing American weapons. Currently, Taiwan is taking delivery of the first batch of 66 long-awaited F-16 C/DBlockfighter jets from the US.
Yet, ominously, when will Xi Jinping's China transition from grey zone harassment of Taiwan to wider active military measures?