The Thai negotiating delegation's failure to meet with their American counterparts last week in Washington, DC, confirmed that Thailand is a low-priority country for the US. That should be a wake-up call for the Paetongtarn government -- the relationship between Thailand and the US is no longer what it used to be.
How can Thailand engage the US under President Donald Trump, who imposed a 36% tariff on Thai exports? This frequently asked question will be on the top of the agenda when nearly 100 ambassadors and consuls are scheduled to brainstorm in Bangkok from June 8 to 15 to identify the country's priorities. The meeting of diplomats comes at the right time, if not long overdue. It is only hoped that the meeting will be a fruitful discussion that reenergises diplomatic initiatives, not just a ritual where officials make speeches that are more like complaints or exercises in self-gratification.
This time around, the foreign ministry's bureaucrats must be bold and dynamic in confronting intra-agency constraints and possible political meddling. It must be said that over the past six months, the country's foreign policy-making has been politicised, compromising national interests.
Within the first 100 days, Mr Trump has punched a massive hole in the global order. The rest of the world has had no choice but to line up and catch up. A handful of countries have been able to resist this aberration, albeit with some moderation. Today, every country must adapt to and adjust to a new geopolitical landscape that can shift at any moment.
Thailand is no exception. The country must now revisit its century-old foreign policy approach to ensure that sovereignty and national interests are protected in these unusual times. This effort comes as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs marks its 150th anniversary -- a fitting moment for deep reflection.
Coincidentally, Thailand is going through an unusual time. The return of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has quickly emerged as the country's de facto solo navigator. The nation's trajectory now largely depends on how he steers the rudder. Thaksin has not shied away from acting as a shadow prime minister and foreign minister, setting the government's agenda.
Some Thai quarters have welcomed Thaksin's maverick, transactional style, arguing it fits well with the current geopolitical landscape, one shaped in part by Mr Trump's brand of diplomacy. But based on Thaksin's past record, it could cause more harm than good.
Internationally, Mr Trump's "Liberation Day" rhetoric has sent chills through the country's foreign policy establishment, prompting a fresh wave of soul-searching. It has even encouraged seasoned diplomats, deeply rooted in traditional practices, to rethink and accelerate a new diplomatic paradigm. At the top of the brainstorming agenda will be the escalating US-China rivalry and Thailand's response. Much has been said already, but in recent weeks, tensions between the two powers have worsened, raising serious concerns that the ongoing trade war could spiral into something even more dangerous -- a real conflict that would threaten global peace, stability, and humanity.
Thailand finds itself uniquely caught between these two superpowers. Depending on how it responds, the country could either reap benefits or suffer losses in the maze of diplomatic brinkmanship. Incrementally, the US-China competition is turning into a zero-sum game -- a "you are either with us or against us" bifurcation. Thai-style middle-of-the-road diplomacy is becoming harder to maintain.
Beyond the two superpowers, other catalysts -- including middle powers, the Global South, non-state actors, and Big Tech companies -- are also shaping the emerging world order. Thailand needs to deepen and broaden its policy of multi-alignment, reaching out to these players, such as the EU, India, Canada, Australia, Japan, Brazil, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia.
In retrospect, one issue stands out. Thailand needs a new mindset in formulating foreign policy toward the Middle East. The region is no longer just a marketplace for Halal products or labour. Lest we forget, 46 Thais have been killed in the Hamas-Israeli conflict that began on Oct 7, 2023. Another 31 Thai workers were taken hostage, with 28 later being released, and two dying in captivity. One person remains unaccounted for. The Thai casualties represent one of the highest foreign national death tolls in the conflict -- a gigantic diplomatic dark hole for the country.
On the brighter side, the full normalisation of relations with Saudi Arabia in 2022 has greatly improved Thailand's overall ties and profile with the region. Bangkok needs a unified strategic framework to enhance its leverage in the current geopolitical balancing act in this volatile region.
Through South-South cooperation, Thailand can further strengthen ties with the Global South through shared best practices and mutual assistance. Recent moves to seek Brics membership and to revitalise organisations like the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (Bimstec) and the Asia Cooperation Dialogue are strong indications of this shift.
Another priority is promoting economic integration within Asean and ensuring the resilience of supply chains. Access to the Thai market must be broadened and less bottlenecked. Positioned at the heart of the Indo-Pacific, Thailand's strategic location adds tremendous value to connectivity and supply networks. It must reject "decoupling" practices advocated by the West by maintaining existing networks that have supported integration and growth.
Finally, the country's foreign policy will continue to draw on intuition honed over centuries of engagement with external great powers and diplomatic practices. The country's foreign bureaucrats often have a strong sense of emerging trends and will adapt as needed. They have to be realistic as well. Most importantly, whether they can craft a forward-looking foreign policy free from political interference remains to be seen, particularly under this government.
It is worth repeating that the currently appointed top echelon at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has yet to display the diplomatic finesse needed for these challenging times. Internationally, the Paetongtarn government remains underrated despite its youthful energy. The mid-June meeting will be the critical time to recalibrate Thailand's diplomatic tradition with fresh initiatives in preparation for an uncertain future.