A decision of the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions to launch an inquiry into claims of improper enforcement of the prison sentence against ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra over what is known as the "14th floor saga" has triggered wild speculation about another round of political bargaining games.
The inquiry follows former Democrat MP Charnchai Issarasenarak's failed attempts to petition the court to investigate the Department of Corrections' (DoC) nod for Thaksin to leave Bangkok Remand Prison and receive treatment at the Police General Hospital (PGH), without staying a single night in prison. Thaksin was placed in a special ward on the 14th floor until discharged months later amid concerns over irregularities with blatant breaches of laws.
The court, on Wednesday, dismissed the former MP's petition because he was not an affected party in the cases against Thaksin.
Instead, the court insisted it had the authority to investigate the matter because it was concerned that the prison sentence may not have been adequately enforced.
Thaksin, the de facto leader of Pheu Thai Party, should feel very uncomfortable with the court's decision.
Having been in self-exile for 17 years, he returned to Thailand on the morning of Aug 22, 2023 -- the very same day, the Supreme Court sentenced him to eight years in prison. The sentence was later cut to one year by royal clemency.
Yet, on his first night in custody, the DoC transferred Thaksin to the PGH, citing a "life-threatening health issue". He remained there until he was granted parole in February last year, after which he actively engaged in political activities, including leading local poll campaigns for Pheu Thai candidates in several provinces.
His immediate good health prompted public suspicion over whether he really was ill from life-threatening diseases, as claimed.
The court's inquiry seemingly suggests that someone, either Thaksin or those who facilitated his extended hospital stay, ie, the justice minister, the DoC chief, doctors at the PGH, or other officials, may have to take accountability for the controversial 14th-floor saga.
In fact, three agencies -- the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), the Office of Ombudsman, and the Medical Council of Thailand -- individually set up probes into the complaints against Thaksin's hospital privileges.
Yet, the probes have moved at a snail's pace, as if those agencies were deliberately dragging their feet.
While the Supreme Court's inquiry may bring hope that justice may prevail regarding this hospital privilege, some cannot afford to be optimistic.
After all, Thaksin's return from exile and Pheu Thai's rise to power, with businessman-turned-politician Srettha Thavisin taking office, are not coincidental.
Much has been debated about a so-called political "deal" between Thaksin and the old guard before the 2023 national election.
Both shared the same fears about the then-Move Forward Party (MFP), now the People's Party, which was perceived to be a significant threat to their existence.
The MFP eventually emerged as the real poll winner but was forced to take the opposition leader's role.
Thaksin's arrogance and ambition may have irked the old guard. Too many laws might have been compromised over his "hospital privilege".
His good health, almost immediately after leaving the PGH, was a sharp contrast to claims of life-threatening illnesses that the authorities unjustifiably used to prolong his stay on the 14th floor. This does not bode well for the justice system.
While leading poll campaigns, Thaksin might have offended the old guard, particularly with his criticism of the Prayut Chan-o-cha administration that put the country on hold for more than a decade.
Meanwhile, Thaksin has boasted about bringing back his sister, former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who escaped jail for dereliction of duty in the scandalous rice pledging scheme.
If so, many laws will again have to be bent.
Looking back, there were signs that some old guard felt compelled to clip Thaksin's wings.
After allowing Thaksin to visit Malaysia as adviser to Anwar Ibrahim, the Asean chair, the court eventually rejected his request to travel to Indonesia to attend the Asean meeting in March. This was a hint for Thaksin, reminding him to play by the rules.
Meanwhile, as the court kicked off an inquiry, it banned him from travelling abroad.
Even though it appears the court may get tough with Thaksin, it's highly unlikely he will land in jail. But those who had a hand in the "14th floor" saga may not be so lucky.
After all, with the People's Party as a threat, the old guard still needs Thaksin as a tool against the political enemy. Pushing him and Pheu Thai to the opposition might not be a good idea, at least for now.
In this political game, the marriage of convenience between Thaksin and the old guard has to continue at whatever cost.