Yesterday, India launched strikes on Pakistan and Pakistani-administered Kashmir, two weeks after a terrorist attack. The situation follows a long-smouldering fuse which has reignited in the wake of the terrible terrorist attack killing 27 tourists in a region of disputed Kashmir, part of India's territory. Some 25 Indian civilians were apparently targeted because of their Hindu religion.
Since the unprovoked attacks in late April, rhetoric between India and Pakistan has ratcheted up, and the respective capitals of New Delhi and Islamabad have seethed with renewed animosity and sabre rattling. India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi had vowed to retaliate against the terrorist perpetrators, pledging to pursue the attackers "to the ends of the earth".
Just weeks earlier, Pakistan's army chief General Asim Munir termed Kashmir as Pakistan's "jugular vein," comments viewed as among possible triggers for the terror attack that coincided with the visit of US Vice President JD Vance. While Pakistan's government has not directly carried out such attacks, in the past it has supported Islamic militants. Some in India's outspoken media have labelled Gen Munir, "The Jihadi General."
Crisis comes quickly in Kashmir, which has been the source of three wars between the now nuclear-armed neighbours as well as countless standoffs and scuffles near the dividing Line of Control, the old cease-fire line going back to the 1972 Simla agreement.
The point is that both India and Pakistan staked out contested claims backed by emotion and nationalistic rhetoric. Much of Kashmir's complex history is rooted in religion, resources and real estate. Even today, Kashmir is divided between India's Jammu and Kashmir region, Pakistan's Azad Kashmir and Gilgit, and an area China seized in 1962.
Kashmir forms a complex geographic puzzle. It was created in the aftermath of Indian independence from Britain in 1947 and the subsequent bloody partition of the British Raj into separate states -- India and Pakistan -- along largely religious lines. Though Kashmir is largely Muslim, the territory chose to join India, thus planting the seeds for conflict.
The region contains the headwaters of the mighty Indus River, the lifeblood for agriculture for both sides. India's Mr Modi had tried to block some of the upstream water of the river by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, "until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism." He also cut trade and transit ties with Pakistan.
After India suspended the treaty in the aftermath of the terror attack, Pakistan's former foreign minister, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, (leader of a key political party) told a rally on the banks of the Indus, "Either water will flow in the Indus, or their blood will." He added, "I want to tell India that the Indus is ours and will remain ours."
The six main branches of the Indus River system run westward through India before crossing into Pakistan; the waters are nothing short of lifeblood for Pakistan's population and agriculture.
Foreign capitals are nervous about how this rhetoric can spin out of control into conflict. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has striven to de-escalate the conflict, expressing his sorrow for the lives lost in the terrorist attack. He "reaffirmed the United States' commitment to cooperation with India against terrorism". Mr Rubio encouraged India to work with Pakistan to de-escalate tensions and maintain peace and security.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres told correspondents, "Targeting civilians is unacceptable, and those responsible must be brought to justice through transparent, credible, and lawful means. It is also essential, especially at this critical hour, to avoid a military confrontation that could easily spin out of control."
He added, "Now is the time for maximum restraint and stepping back from the brink. Make no mistake: A military solution is no solution."
Though Pakistan is nearly a Chinese client state and deeply invested in Beijing's Belt and Road infrastructure programme, Beijing is decidedly nervous about its proxy in Pakistan slipping into a likely unwinnable war with India. Beijing is currently facing a serious economic blowback from the Trump administration's tough tariffs. China's once unchallenged export industries now feel the pain.
Beijing knows that domestic discontent inside Mainland China could spell disaster.
The conflict between New Delhi and Islamabad could slip into a regional conflict where nuclear weapons may come into play. This is the time for both India's and Pakistan's allies to engage in preventive diplomacy to stop the slide into chaos.
It's time for calm.
John J Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of 'Divided Dynamism : The Diplomacy of Separated Nations; Germany, Korea, China.'