Does anyone remember these words? Fiscal multiplier. Economic cyclone. Exit from the black hole of poverty.
These are the vocabulary that Pheu Thai Party politicians have used to describe the merits of the party's flagship policy, the "digital cash wallet".
During their latest national election campaign, the party's candidates promised to hand out 10,000 baht to all Thais over 16. The scheme cost almost half a trillion baht, yet the party told voters the one-time giveaway would be multiplied 4-5 times, eventually lifting GDP to 5% in a year.
Since becoming the government's leader, the party has aggressively pushed this economic stimulus plan.
Anyone who disagreed with the plan was described as having political motivations for doing so, if not a lack of understanding about finance. But lists of opponents countered the party's reprimand. Among critics are former governors of the Bank of Thailand, scores of economic professors at leading universities, and former finance ministers.
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) officially warned that the 450 billion baht to be handed out will contribute only 0.9 percentage points to Thailand's GDP growth, not 1.2-1.8 percentage points or the substantial rise as the Pheu Thai government predicted.
Meanwhile, a subcommittee of the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) openly raised concern about potential policy-based corruption, inadequate planning and fiscal risks.
Despite these warnings, the Pheu Thai government aggressively pushed the envelope. Part of the budgets from other projects were diverted, and public debt was raised to finance it.
Earlier phases of the programme, carried out since last year, provided the 10,000-baht financial support to welfare cardholders, persons with disabilities, and senior citizens aged 60 and above, with disbursements processed through PromptPay. The scheme's third phase was approved in March as part of a broader economic stimulus package. It targets 2.7 million young people aged 16 to 20, who will each receive 10,000 baht via digital wallets.
This week, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra publicly said the third phase of the cash handout will need some revisions as the economic impact of US President Donald Trump's hyper-tariff policy looms large.
The possible changes will upset potential recipients, while some have welcomed them after the government officially said it would consider using the money to improve water infrastructure.
However, one thing has been missing from the public discussion: Does the scheme deliver its original promise? Has the handout provided recipients with an exit to climb out of the "black hole of poverty"? Who must be responsible if the economic stimulus plan fails to live up to all of its promises?
The national GDP has not risen due to the Pheu Thai Party project. What was touted as an economic stimulus became a welfare handout to vulnerable groups due to the lack of a systematic plan.
Make no mistake: Cash handouts and economic stimulus plans are not bad things. With prudence, real purpose, and good planning, they can help the economy and the public. But little of that has been seen through the digital cash wallet.
Without accountability, such initiatives will be used by politicians to attract voters at taxpayers' expense.
