Thailand is facing an avalanche of environmental, economic and political crises, without light at the end of the tunnel. Without stronger leadership and more effective governance, the situation is likely to worsen, driven by years of state inefficiency and neglect.
The first major shock came in March, when an earthquake in Myanmar triggered the collapse of a 30-storey building in Bangkok. The tragedy exposed deep-rooted issues, including poor building standards, lax oversight, foreign nominee abuse and suspected corruption, made worse by the fact the building belonged to the State Audit Office, an agency meant to hold others accountable.
In April, Thailand faced a new economic blow as the United States imposed a steep 36% tariff on its exports under President Donald Trump's broad protectionist push. With the US as Thailand's top export market, and global growth slowing, the country now faces a major economic storm.
Global financial institutions responded swiftly. Both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank revised Thailand's 2025 growth forecasts downward -- the IMF to 1.8% and the World Bank to 1.6%, from their previous 2.9% projection. The pessimism deepened when Moody's Investors Service revised Thailand's sovereign credit outlook from "stable" to "negative", also adjusting the outlook of seven major Thai financial institutions downward.
Moody's downgrade of Thailand's outlook is a clear warning, signalling waning investor confidence and rising concerns over fiscal discipline. Without urgent reforms and a clear debt plan, a full credit downgrade may soon follow.
Policy options remain complex. Thailand must balance economic stimulus with fiscal discipline. Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira has proposed borrowing 500 billion baht, which may raise the debt ceiling to 70–80% of GDP. While possibly necessary, this risks undermining confidence, given the government's poor record in spending and revenue collection, and ongoing budget deficits.
The government's flagship economic stimulus policy -- the 10,000-baht digital wallet handout -- has already consumed tens of billions of baht across two phases, with a third phase in the works. Yet economic data reveals a disappointing return on investment, with GDP growth rising just 0.8%, a far cry from the government's claims of creating an "economic whirlwind".
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra conceded the third phase must be revised in light of the new US tariffs and worsening global outlook. The public, who were promised swift relief during the election campaign, are understandably disillusioned.
These missteps point to a troubling pattern that economic policies are being drafted hastily, without coherent planning or clear objectives. Worse still, fiscal tools have been used more for political gain than sustainable growth.
This is all occurring against a backdrop of increasing political instability. Fractures within the coalition government are becoming more visible, and legal troubles loom over key political figures.
What Thailand urgently needs is a course correction. The government must re-evaluate all populist schemes, cancel inefficient spending and redirect national resources toward well-planned structural reforms. Investment should focus on social infrastructure, economic restructuring and human capital -- areas that will yield sustainable dividends in the long run.