Timor-Leste's long-awaited bid to join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) is in jeopardy. It has encountered unexpected headwinds -- this time from the Philippines. The sudden diplomatic friction stems from Dili's refusal to extradite Arnolfo "Arnie" Teves Jr, a former Filipino congressman accused of terrorism and multiple murders, back to Manila.
The episode has added another layer of complexity to Timor-Leste's accession to Asean. The bloc's enlargement process between 1995-1999 was far smoother than when the founding members of Asean met when they formed the bloc during the 1960s. As the region's youngest democracy, Timor-Leste's domestic political dynamics and broader geopolitical rivalry and alignment also raise the ante.
At the upcoming 47th Asean Summit, which will take place May 25-27 in Kuala Lumpur, Asean leaders will have to take a clear stance on whether Timor-Leste will join their club or if the door will remain closed for another year or two.
Malaysia, the current Asean chair, in particular Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, has been one of the most vocal supporters of expansion. Kuala Lumpur has backed Dili's inclusion consistently, and it has been joined by countries like Indonesia, Cambodia, and Thailand. But consensus remains elusive. Other member states -- while not opposing Timor-Leste's membership outright -- have shown less enthusiasm, reiterating its limited institutional capacity, underdeveloped economy, and at times, confrontational political rhetoric.
Timor-Leste, a nation of just over 1.3 million people, has been widely lauded for its democratic progress since gaining independence in 2002. Its press freedom indexes in various Western-based media monitoring organisations put it among the world's top 50 countries, leaving other Asean members behind.
Moreover, historically, Asean is obsessed with principles of political non-interference and consensus, so it is not a democracy club. Since formally applying for Asean membership in 2011, Timor-Leste's political leadership -- most notably President Jose Ramos-Horta and Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao, both internationally respected figures -- have not shied away from criticising democratic deficits and human rights violations within the bloc. Such candour has stirred unease in Asean capitals, where a consensus-based community prefers ambiguity over confrontation.
A recurring concern among diplomats is whether the bloc could again face internal deadlock, as it did in 2012 when Asean failed for the first time to issue a joint communique, due to disagreements over the South China Sea. Some officials now worry whether including a more outspoken member could paralyse the group's ability to reach a consensus.
The situation is further complicated by Asean's ongoing struggle to deal with the Myanmar crisis, which followed a military coup in February 2021.
After the putsch, the junta leader has been banned from participating in high-level Asean meetings. During the brief democratic opening under the National League for Democracy-led administration with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar enjoyed cordial ties with President Ramos-Horta, with both leaders holding Nobel Peace Prizes. Those ties have since turned upside down, largely due to Dili's vocal condemnation of the junta's actions -- another source of tension within the regional bloc.
Now, the Philippines has emerged as a potential roadblock. Recently, Manila publicly gave such a hint to Timor-Leste's handling of the Teves case. Teves, a former lawmaker and designated terrorist by the Philippine Anti-Terrorism Council, was arrested in Dili in March 2024. He faces multiple charges, including the high-profile assassination of Negros Oriental Governor Roel Degamo in 2023.
Manila has made it clear that failure to extradite Teves could affect its support for Timor-Leste's Asean bid. While Timor-Leste has so far maintained that its judicial process must run its course before any extradition can take place, the incident has placed Dili in a diplomatic spotlight.
Nonetheless, Asean continues to engage with Timor-Leste. Member states have urged the country to adhere closely to the Asean Roadmap for membership, which outlines key commitments across three pillars: political-security, economic, and socio-cultural. As of early this year, Dili was ready to comply with the 178 documents for full accession, including ratifying key treaties and participating in capacity-building efforts.
Indeed, over the past years, Asean has taken visible steps to integrate Timor-Leste. The country participated as an observer during the Asean Summit in Jakarta in November 2023. Asean technical and institutional support to Dili has also expanded, focusing on improving administrative capacity, economic governance, and political readiness. Its media organisations have links and cooperation with key Asean members.
Behind closed doors, many senior Asean officials quietly acknowledge that Timor-Leste has been moderating its tone publicly. The fiery rhetoric that once defined its engagement with Asean has softened, replaced by a more pragmatic approach. Kudos to the country's top leaders who are navigating these sensitivities. Still, the road to membership this year remains uncertain. Asean's requirement for unanimous consensus means a single dissenting member can block Timor-Leste's accession. Today, geopolitical rivalries and domestic considerations can influence the decision-making process than ever before.
Asean leaders must overcome short-term disputes to embrace a more inclusive and resilient community and avoid any possible glitch. At this juncture, Timor-Leste's future in the Asean family still hangs in the balance.