Myanmar is at a pivotal and promising historical crossroads that may resemble the transformative journey of its northern neighbour.
China's leaders will recall the tumultuous period from 1927–1949 of the Chinese Civil War, which ended with the establishment of the People's Republic of China. They will remember the Long March, which was a significant milestone of resilience and determination in the bitter struggle against oppressive regimes supported by foreign powers, more interested in their own agenda than the aspirations of the Chinese people.
Today, Myanmar faces a similar moment in history. Its people are rising up against a regime that is using repression and violence, reminiscent of the authoritarianism and militarised rule once associated with the Kuomintang under Chiang Kai-shek. Myanmar's revolution aims to achieve peace, prosperity and justice by implementing the will of the Myanmar people -- not that of any foreign power.
This journey parallels Mao Zedong's critical support from the peasants and workers' movement that led to the establishment of the People's Republic of China. China's journey to sovereignty, stability and self-determination was rooted in the needs and aspirations of the Chinese peoples. Myanmar hopes to follow the same path.
From the humble beginnings of raucous street protests and handmade weapons to a coordinated nationwide armed offensive against one of Southeast Asia's largest military forces, this movement has flourished through grit, innovation and the indomitable resolve of the people. As the international community considers how it engages with Myanmar, it should recognise two simple truths: the resistance movement is likely to prevail, and most importantly, it offers the only path to peace and stability.
Unlike the generals, this movement is led by members elected by the people in the 2020 national election. The Myanmar people have consistently shown that they will no longer accept this military regime and instead support the Myanmar resistance, which will never stop fighting until they have won.
But the people's goal is not to exterminate the military. It is to transform the military into a professional institution that serves the public and is accountable to an elected civilian government. Although Myanmar has never enjoyed this in its tortuous history since independence -- it is nothing radical.
Such a vision corresponds with China's aspirations for a "community of common destiny". Stability in Myanmar is key to the region's long-term stability and prosperity, and especially that of China.
The National Unity Government (NUG) recognises China's desire for a peaceful resolution to the current violence in Myanmar and to restore a vital and prosperous economic partnership. However, President Xi Jinping's public engagement with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the principal architect of Myanmar's ongoing conflict, undermines the stability that China claims to seek in Myanmar.
It is deeply concerning that such engagement with a brutal military leader, responsible for the daily killing of civilians, significantly damages China-Myanmar relations in both the short and long term.
Moreover, superficial and temporary ceasefires merely prolong the conflict and impede the renewal of any vibrant economic partnership. These coercive measures fracture the resistance movement, which is the only path to lasting stability, while merely shifting the junta's atrocities from one region to another. Ultimately, these actions compromise the very progress China says it wishes to achieve.
Instead, Beijing should honour the Pauk Phaw (or brotherly bond) that exists between China and Myanmar and ensure its engagement in Myanmar is aligned with the aspirations of the Myanmar people. China should avoid assisting the junta in its divide-and-conquer strategy, and instead consider engaging with all actors in Myanmar, including the NUG.
The NUG and the People's Defense Forces (PDFs) are central to achieving peace and stability in Myanmar. In areas in Myanmar where there are significant Chinese investments, cooperative relations with the NUG and PDFs are paramount to safeguarding those interests. The liberation movement prioritises the protection of Chinese investments against disruption, as stability is important for all.
The NUG and PDFs are not proxies of the West. They are solely accountable to the Myanmar people -- not any foreign government. They are open and willing to engage with any international stakeholder who helps advance the people's revolution. Under the leadership of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the National League for Democracy maintained strong relations with neighbouring countries, including China, before 2021. That remains a key priority.
Nevertheless, there are unsettling reports of Chinese pressure on local entities to cooperate with military interests instead of embracing the broader resistance movement and the NUG. This not only undermines China's longstanding principle of non-interference but also jeopardises both stability in Myanmar and China's strategic interests.
Ultimately, China faces two critical questions: (1) is a post-conflict settlement more stable under a resistance-led government or a military dictatorship and (2) which group is more likely to prevail?
In the past five years of semi-civilian governance under the liberation forces, those areas are more stable and economically vibrant than military-controlled territory. And the people will not stop fighting, as long as the military is in power. It is also clear that the total area under the military's control is diminishing day by day. The junta now controls less than a quarter of the country. In short, the military can and will be defeated -- and that is a preferable outcome for China.
China should engage positively and equitably with all parties, including the NUG and PDFs. Supporting a vision of a peaceful and prosperous Myanmar is a strategy that ensures mutual benefits -- not just for the people of Myanmar, but also for China, as well as the region as a whole.
The Myanmar people remain resolutely committed to this revolution: fighting for a future defined by dignity, prosperity and justice. The path ahead may be fraught, but only a future anchored in the will of the people will bring true peace and stability.
Daw Zin Mar Aung is Foreign Minister under the National Unity Government of Myanmar.