With two military coups and multiple judicial interventions that combined to subvert election results and weaken democratic institutions over the past two decades, it is unsurprising that Thailand's geostrategic position has leaned increasingly towards China. Naturally, the more Thailand becomes autocratic, the more it will be estranged from established democracies in Europe and North America, as well as Japan and South Korea, with nowhere to turn but to Beijing. But this China orientation is a geostrategic mistake at this time. Thailand should correct its course until clearer signs emerge as to which side of the superpower struggle will come out on top.
To be sure, it would not be unwise to gravitate further towards China if the Asian giant is on course to reign supreme in the international system. But this is not the case, at least not yet. The ongoing confrontation and conflict between China and the United States, which will determine how the international order will be reshaped and reset, still has a long way to go. Thailand needs to pursue both sides in a moving geostrategic balance in the meantime. But this is not happening.
Picking up from my last article a week ago, Thailand has currently lost balance with the US over two major instances of shooting itself in the foot and scoring own goals for no good reason. The two cases are the deportation of 40 Uyghurs earlier this year on Feb 27 and the arrest on April 4 of a mild-mannered American academic, Dr Paul Chambers, over a publicity flyer about a talk he gave in Singapore last October. Meanwhile, those who think Thailand can simply turn to China in place of the US are ignorant of the fact that the latter remains the top destination for Thai exports.
China, in fact, competes with and uses Thailand as a diversionary conduit to sell its products in the US market, undergirding Thailand's US$45.6 billion trade surplus with the US and US$19.2 billion trade deficit with China. This is partly why US President Donald Trump has imposed a 36% tariff on Thailand, contingent on a 90-day pause when negotiations are to be held before the deadline on July 9. But Thailand has made little headway in tariff negotiations compared to its peer group, particularly Vietnam and Malaysia. In fact, Thailand is practically the laggard on US tariff talks among Southeast Asian economies.
Smug Thais who scoff at the Trump tariff on Thailand should know that its consequences for the Thai economy could be dire. As nearly two-thirds of the Thai economy derives from the export sector, Thailand's ability to sell into the US market is vital. Last year, Thai exports to the US amounted to US$55 billion, representing more than 17% of all Thai exports and accounting for upwards of 10% of GDP. If US tariffs on Thailand are not brought down or not reduced enough to remain price competitive with peer competitors, the result will be lower economic growth, underpinned by closures of factories and companies, job losses, and declining standards of living. Finding alternative markets would be a way out, but that takes time.
There are reasons why Thailand has made little or no progress on tariff negotiations, and the traditional Thai media have done a poor job of researching and explaining them. In Washington, Thailand is virtually blacklisted because of the Uyghur deportation in February and the Chambers arrest and harassment on charges of royal defamation and breaching the Computer Crimes Act. The case of 40 Uyghurs being forcefully sent back to China in the middle of the night was unnecessary because they had been in detention in Thailand since 2015. Keeping them here to abide by international conventions without caving to Chinese pressure, while not allowing them to go to third countries and thereby upset Beijing, was the way to go. I wrote about this being a "strategic mistake" in this space on March 7. To this day, there is still no accountability for the Uyghur debacle among Thai policymakers, particularly Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Phumtham Wechayachai.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio responded by imposing visa restrictions on Thai officials who were "complicit" in the Uyghur deportation. This visa ban would seem to include Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Mr Phumtham.
It is noticeable that the prime minister and defence minister have travelled extensively, but not to the US since the visa ban was imposed. The visa restrictions can easily be exempted when Thai leaders need to visit the US on official duties, but apparently, Secretary Rubio wants the Uyghur case clarified before proceeding. When Mr Phumtham and PM Paetongtarn denied that they are under visa sanctions, the Thai media conveniently accepted without double-checking with sources in Washington and elsewhere.
The Uyghur case was compounded by the lack of accountability on Dr Chambers' arrest. Even though the state prosecutor decided to drop the charges, the police still revoked his visa and took away his passport, while Naresuan University terminated his employment. To this day, the Third Army commander who went after Dr Chambers has not been held accountable. The Thai media have not reported how the Chambers case became a "cause célèbre" in Washington and Oklahoma, his home state.
Dr Chambers' brother wrote an opinion piece in the Oklahoman newspaper, and his 85-year-old mother penned open letters to President Trump. The Chambers family's call for justice in the US was heard loud and clear in Thai-US relations. Senator James Lankford of Oklahoma rallied behind Dr Chambers in the US Congress. Everywhere Thailand went around Washington, the first questions raised were about the Uyghurs and Dr Chambers. There is reportedly a blanket indication from Secretary Rubio not to engage Thailand on tariffs until the Thai government owns up and explains these two cases.
No wonder Thailand cannot gain access to the US Commerce and Treasury departments and the US Trade Representative for tariff talks. Thai government officials have had sideline handshakes with these key tariff negotiators at a few international meetings, but the US officials' message is clear that Thailand is not in the top tiers of direct talks. What the Thai government needs to do to rebalance its geostrategic footing with the US is to explain and own up to the Uyghur mistake and to come up with accountability in the Chambers fiasco, starting with the investigation and transfer of the Third Army chief.