A cabinet reshuffle is expected to take place very soon. The shakeup is the first since the Paetongtarn Shinawatra government came to power 10 months ago, with just two more years remaining before the next general election.
Sadly, the upcoming reshuffle appears to be politically motivated rather than a restructuring to improve efficiency and public service.
The conflict within the governing coalition, particularly between the leading Pheu Thai Party and the Bhumjaithai Party, the largest coalition partner, is reported to be the cause behind the cabinet change.
Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the "spiritual leader" of Pheu Thai, holds ideological influence over this administration. He recently said Pheu Thai should oversee the Interior Ministry to ensure its policies can be effectively delivered to the public in the two years remaining before the election. Currently, the Interior Ministry is under the control of Bhumjaithai, with its leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, serving as minister.
Thaksin's remarks can be read in two ways. On the one hand, they suggest a desire for Pheu Thai to reclaim the ministry from a coalition partner whose relationship with them has progressively deteriorated. On the other, they reflect a strategic calculation by Pheu Thai to bolster its electoral prospects in view of the approaching election.
Meanwhile, Mr Anutin responded in an interview that Bhumjaithai did not ask to join the coalition. It was Pheu Thai who invited them during the political deadlock two years ago when Pheu Thai was not the party that won the most seats in the last election.
There have been reports of intense negotiations over this reshuffle. If Bhumjaithai must yield the Interior Ministry, it is expected to get an A-grade ministry in return, to say the least. Pheu Thai may also need to offer an additional B-grade ministry as a bonus.
Politically, A-grade ministries are not only those with large budgets. A-list portfolios are in the position of delivering highly invisible and tangible projects and development for constituencies and voters. Major A-list ministries include the Agriculture Ministry, which engages directly with farmers who account for most of the population, and the Transport Ministry, which develops roads and logistics.
In contrast, B-grade ministries -- even with the largest budgets, such as the Ministry of Education -- do not impress voters with projects.
Ultimately, this reshuffle appears unlikely to have a significant impact on the broader interests of the nation. Instead, it serves the interests of parties and politicians. After all, public benefit is not the guiding factor of this cabinet shakeup. Of course, this is the reality of coalition governments, bargaining to maintain power. Although tensions exist among coalition partners, none of them appear willing to exit the government or risk a parliamentary dissolution. At least, not unless things reach a breaking point.
As the government and the PM have a duty to serve the nation and the people, a cabinet reshuffle must show the government's ethos to work for the country and improve public service. A cabinet reshuffle that serves only politics will only yield short term political advances. Once members of the public lose faith, they will decide with their votes in the next election.