Following the recent devastating earthquake, Myanmar's military junta leaders are facing increasing pressure at home and abroad. Despite this, they are moving forward with their five-step plan, while still implementing the Asean peace plan. The most crucial part of their plan is to hold a general election between late December 2025 and early January 2026. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has already promised this to leaders from India, China, Russia, Belarus and Asean countries.
For the Tatmadaw, this election is considered the most deliverable exit strategy. They believe that holding any election, even a rigged one, will make them more legitimate. The junta generals know that other countries and international organisations have accepted elections elsewhere, even when they were not completely inclusive, free and fair, as long as some basic rules were followed.
As of mid-2025, 80 political parties had registered with the military-appointed election commission, up from 53 parties. There could be more as the election approaches.
However, the planned voting will only occur in areas they control -- mainly cities and parts of central Myanmar--where they claim voters will be safe. However, experts believe only about 145 out of Myanmar's 330 townships will be able to vote. Recent reports indicate the military now controls only 53% of the country, with the remaining areas either contested or held by resistance groups.
Since taking power in February 2021, the military has extended the nationwide emergency every six months to maintain control. The latest, sixth emergency decree, will end on June 30.
According to sources close to the State Administration Council (SAC), to prepare for the upcoming elections, they plan to terminate the emergency by the end of July 2025. Then, they will transfer power to the National Defence and Security Council, which is expected to appoint U Myint Swe as the chief caretaker.
Myint Swe, a former vice president under Aung San Suu Kyi, is a retired general with close relations with the military. He would manage the overall scheme of things before the election and serve as a link between the military and future civilian leaders.
Among all the registered parties, five are more prominent than the others. The largest is the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which is the military's political party. Another significant one is the Peace and Prosperity Party (PPP). Smaller parties like the Shan State Progress Party, the People's Party, and the Socialist Party (founded by former prime minister Ne Win) are expected to win seats in their home regions.
Some former politicians, such as Daw Thet Thet Khine, a former aide to Suu Kyi, and Ko Ko Gyi, a well-known former student leader and activist, are returning to politics.
Recently, the SAC has conducted a census to determine where voting can take place. It reiterates that elections will follow the 2008 Constitution, which gives the military 25% of all seats in both houses of parliament. These seats are reserved for military officers chosen by the top commander, not elected by voters.
Other countries have reacted differently to the planned elections. India, China, Russia and Belarus have reportedly expressed interest in sending election observers, which would provide some international backing for the Tatmadaw. Asean has not yet discussed this issue, but the bloc clearly stressed that any election must be inclusive, free and fair. However, the Malaysian chair has also prioritised peace and security to end the fighting and kick-start political dialogues.
Since taking the Asean chair, Kuala Lumpur has been working closely with Bangkok to ensure an inclusive and Myanmar-led process. After a recent meeting in Bangkok with the junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim also had a video call with leaders from the National Unity Government (NUG) -- the shadow government formed by ousted lawmakers and resistance leaders. Asean is now open to talking with different groups.
Progress on Asean's own Five-Point Consensus, adopted in April 2021, has gained traction. However, the Tatmadaw has partially implemented the peace plan, and aid groups still face difficulties accessing conflict areas despite the SAC's promises. The latest ceasefire, which runs through the end of June, aims to support ongoing reconstruction and humanitarian efforts following the devastating March 28 earthquake, which killed over 3,700 people and caused widespread destruction across several regions.
However, if the military were to agree to a broader ceasefire and allow more humanitarian access, Asean might reconsider Myanmar's status in the group. These actions would demonstrate good faith and could be a turning point for Myanmar's return to Asean after being excluded from major meetings since the coup.
Henceforth, the upcoming Asean chair, the Philippines, faces the difficult task of managing the Myanmar crisis while also dealing with the South China Sea dispute. For the Philippines to unite all Asean members, they must agree on the so-called "substantive progress" on all the five-point plans. That said, the remaining time of Malaysia's chair is crucial if Myanmar wants to return to the Asean family. Asean still has yet to work on the selection process for a permanent special envoy on Myanmar. Some Asean members have suggested having two envoys, one for the junta and the other for the National Unity Government and resistance groups.
Truth be told, the admission of Timor Leste in October as the 11th Asean member has added another layer of complexity to the enlarged decision-making process. Dili will be the bloc's most liberal vis-à-vis Nay Pyi Taw, the most dictatorial. With two pendulums, Asean's long-standing consensus-making process is facing a new dilemma.
Since the junta will go ahead with the planned election, it is necessary to have broader participation from ethnic groups, civil society, and opposition parties. Nay Pyi Taw is hoping that after the coup and the recent earthquake, the election could create new dynamics and kick off real dialogue and structural changes.
For the time being, Asean must stay engaged with all stakeholders as the military is preparing for the endgame.