In recent years, climate anxiety has taken over many Western governments and most international organisations. The result has been ruinous policies that help little but undermine future prosperity needed to deal with a host of other problems. Fortunately, Thailand can avoid repeating these mistakes.
Climate change is a man-made problem, but campaigners and irresponsible politicians have distorted this out of all proportion and now falsely call it an existential threat that could eradicate humanity. This exaggeration grossly misrepresents the science in the UN Climate Panel reports. Moreover, it is repudiated by the world's leading climate economists, including the only one to win the Nobel Prize. The cost of no further action on climate is equivalent to lowering GDP by 2-3% by century's end -- a problem, not the end of the world.
Yet, the incessant scare stories have driven some Western governments to enact immensely costly policies. The UK has gone further in climate policies over the past two decades than nearly any other country. As a result, the inflation-adjusted electricity price, weighted across households and industry, has tripled from 2003 to 2023. By comparison, the US electricity price has remained almost unchanged over the same period.
At the same time, the rich world is increasingly realising that it faces many other expensive challenges, including an ageing population bringing higher pension and healthcare costs, crumbling infrastructure, poor educational outcomes and a need for larger defence spending. Yet the EU has committed itself to Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050, which will cost over 10% of its GDP, or €3.3 trillion (121.44 trillion baht) annually. This is more than today's entire core spending across all 27 countries on health, education, police, courts, prisons, defence, and the environment.
Thailand should not repeat the mistakes made by Western countries by diving headlong into ineffective climate policies. It has a record of huge achievements, vast potential, and -- like every other country -- a myriad of complex challenges. It's important that Thailand gets the balance right between the challenges and opportunities it faces. A considered, balanced response to climate change means rolling out solar and wind in the areas where that is sensible, while realising that the longer-term solution to climate change must be innovation.
In 1970, when hunger stalked 35% of the developing world, the answer was not to make the whole world eat less to redistribute food. It was innovation through the Green Revolution which dramatically increased yields and brought better varieties and more fertiliser. Likewise, we will not solve climate change by joining the British, being poorer, colder and with less power. Instead, the leading industrial nations that are responsible for the majority of carbon emissions need to ramp up innovation in future generations of low-carbon energy. Once they innovate clean energy to be cheaper than fossil fuels, everyone will be able to switch.
Adaptation is another vital climate change response. Farmers across Thailand know this already: they adapt to suit changes in the climate. In cities, we know that adaptive infrastructure like green areas, more reflective surfaces, and water features helps keep temperatures cooler. Adaptation can avoid a large part of the climate problem.
Finally, poverty alleviation is a crucial part of the response to climate change. Lifting people out of poverty reduces their vulnerability to climate shocks like heat waves or hurricanes. Moreover, wealthier, more prosperous societies can afford better protection from the elements, along with better nutrition, healthcare and social protection. Wealthy countries can spend more on environmental protection and all other good things.
Being smart about climate change also means that governments will have more resources to invest in solving other important challenges. On phenomenal investment: agricultural R&D to help Thailand's farmers become more efficient. Globally, a modest investment of $5.5 billion annually could go a long way and free 133 million people from hunger.
By 2050, this additional funding will boost agricultural output by 10%, reduce food prices by 16%, and increase per capita incomes by 4%. And more efficient agriculture will reduce global climate emissions by more than 1%. Each baht spent delivers 33 baht of social benefits.
Thailand has immense possibilities ahead if it can seize the opportunity to invest wisely and judiciously. It should avoid the singular climate focus of some Western countries and invest based on rigorous economic science in areas where it can make the most impact and the greatest progress.
Bjorn Lomborg is President of the Copenhagen Consensus, Visiting Fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, and author of 'False Alarm' and 'Best Things First'.