What does it mean for former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra now that Public Health Minister Somsak Thepsuthin's last-ditch attempt to shield his master from the prospect of being sent back to jail to serve his one-year jail term was crushed by the Medical Council of Thailand at a crucial meeting last Thursday?
On the face of it, Mr Somsak tried to portray himself as the defender of the three underdog doctors -- a former chief doctor and an incumbent at the Police General Hospital and a doctor at the Corrections Department's hospital -- "unfairly" disciplined by the council.
But in reality and, perhaps deep in his heart, he seemed to be more concerned with his boss than with the penalties imposed on the doctors, because of the ramifications of the council's later reconfirmation of its May 8 resolution on Thaksin's "14th floor" case, now being considered by the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Office.
Mr Somsak was wrong when he thought his presence at the council meeting last Thursday, which critics saw as intimidatory, could convince some members, especially the ex-officio members, to abstain or uphold his veto.
Instead, he found himself to be sidelined by the council president, Dr Somsri Paosawat, who gave him only 15 minutes -- no more, no less -- to address council members and then leave the meeting room. That amounts to a first slap on his face by the council.
The second slap came when members overwhelmingly voted to kill his veto.
The votes for Dr Sophonrat Singharuchi, former PGH chief doctor, are 64:2 in favour of the penalty against him with two abstentions and 65:1 with two abstentions for Dr Thaweesilp Wechvitarn, the current chief doctor. Dr Ruamthip Suphanan of the Corrections Department's hospital received 67 votes with one abstention.
The council's reconfirmation of its May 8 resolution to discipline the doctors also carries a hidden message which seems to have struck fear in Thaksin's camp.
The brief message, that there was "no empirical evidence to prove the patient's critical health condition", was interpreted as meaning, in layman's terms, that Thaksin was not critically ill during his stay at PGH, although his name was never mentioned by the council.
This could be used as a crucial piece of evidence by the Supreme Court as it determines whether its one-year sentence was actually enforced by the Corrections Department or not.
At its first hearing on Friday, the court instructed the National Anti-Corruption Commission to submit several reports to the court within 15 days: the investigation report on the Medical Council's May 8 resolution by the National Human Rights Commission; the expenditure receipts of Corrections Department's officials assigned to the PGH to keep watch on Thaksin, and Thaksin's medical records while being treated abroad.
For now, the court has scheduled three more hearings for July. It remains to be seen whether more hearings will be required or not.
In wake of the council's resolution and the overwhelming circumstantial evidence suggesting Thaksin might not have been as critically ill as claimed by his backers or the doctors, it will be an uphill task for Thaksin's lawyers to prove otherwise.
It appears their first line of defence -- that Thaksin was actually very sick which warranted his long stay at the PGH -- has cracked.
But wait. It is too soon for a celebration as the legal battle is not over yet. Commentators who said MCT's triumph marks a step closer to prison for Thaksin appear to be too quick to jump to such a conclusion.
His lawyers still have a second line of defence if the first has collapsed. They are likely to argue the former prime minister has already served his term while being "detained" at the PGH for six months.
The remaining six months were suspended by virtue of the department's regulations pertaining to elderly and sick inmates.
His lawyers could play around with legal technicalities about the meaning of detention by claiming Thaksin had been confined within the "detention facility" at the PGH and had not been allowed to leave the 14th floor although he was allowed to meet some visitors, for instance former police chief Pol Gen Sereepisuth Temeeyaves.
The images that show the suite on 14th floor is full of the amenities fit for a celebrity and without any life-saving medical equipment can, at best, prove this is not the place for a critically ill patient.
There is no clear definition, either, of what a detention cell should be.
Hence, a prisoner who is put under house arrest is also counted as being detained.
In the same way, Thaksin's confinement at the PGH for six months under guard by officials from the department can be interpreted as his having served his term. That is likely to be the argument of his lawyers.
Even if the court dismisses this argument and the claim that Thaksin was critically sick, the best the court could do is fault the department officials concerned for malfeasance in office for not executing the imprisonment sentence. That's not Thaksin's fault.
The three corruption cases which resulted to Thaksin's imprisonment were over and, hence, the end of the court's jurisdiction.
It appears the hand of the law might not be long enough to grab Thaksin and throw him into the dungeon. If that were the case, the cynical saying that prison is not meant for the super rich or the powers-that be, but for the poor, might again gain ground.
