Is the climate change tide turning?
United States President Barack Obama yesterday unveiled a national plan to "reduce carbon pollution and lead global efforts to fight" climate change. The initiative, which will see the president rest heavily upon executive actions, rather than seeking to get legislation through Congress, includes limiting greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, increasing appliance efficiency standards, and promoting renewable energy development on public land.
The plan, coming less than a year after the extensive flooding from Superstorm Sandy, also focuses on preparing the US for the impact of near-term climate change.
The urgency of this issue for Mr Obama will only have been heightened by the release in February of the latest biennial US Government Accountability Office's (GAO) review which included climate change for the first time ever in its "high-risk list". The GAO, which is a respected, independent government body, asserted that climate change presents a "significant financial risk", and asserted Washington needs a "government-wide strategic approach with strong leadership" in response.
Mr Obama's plan will be welcomed by many across the world, and comes during a period when it may seem hard not to be pessimistic about the global battle to manage the huge risks of climate change. For instance, the annual United Nations Framework on Climate Change summit in December made only modest progress, despite the fact that the evidence is mounting that our planet is heating up, and prospects of preventing dangerous climate change, which all countries have agreed should be avoided by limiting warming to no more than 2C, seem to be receding.
However, far from this being the hopeless situation some depict, these latest US developments underline a growing possibility that we may be reaching a point when the international tide decisively turns on tackling climate change. To be sure, much more needs to be done, but if one takes a step back and examines what is already happening at national and sub-national levels right across the world, a relatively positive picture is beginning to emerge.
That is, domestic laws and regulations to address climate change are being passed at an increasing rate _ in stark contrast to the progress in international negotiations. In the past year alone, as described in a new report published by Globe International, 32 of 33 surveyed countries (which account for more than 85% of global greenhouse gas emissions), including the US, have introduced or are progressing significant climate or related legislation and regulation.
This is nothing less than "game-changing". In the past 12 months alone:
F China, after the publication of its 12th five-year plan in 2011, has proceeded with detailed implementation guidelines including rules for emissions-trading pilots, progress with drafting its climate change law and publication of an energy white paper. Moreover, at the end of October, sub-national legislation was passed in Shenzhen to tackle climate change _ the first such legislation in China.
- Mexico has passed a general law on climate change _ a comprehensive legislative framework.
- South Africa has proposed a carbon tax in its latest budget.
- South Korea passed legislation to begin a nationwide emissions-trading scheme by 2015.
- The European Union passed a new directive on energy efficiency, and Germany strengthened legislation relating to carbon capture and storage and energy efficiency.
Right now, it is mainly developing countries, which will provide the motor of global economic growth in coming decades, that are leading this drive. Many are concluding it is in their national interest to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by embracing low-carbon growth and development, and to better prepare for climate change.
They see that expanding domestic sources of renewable energy not only reduces emissions but also increases energy security by reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels. Reducing energy demand through greater efficiency reduces costs and increases competitiveness. Improving resilience to the impact of climate change also makes sound economic sense.
It follows, therefore, that advancing domestic climate legislation and regulations, and experiencing the co-benefits of reducing emissions, is a crucial building block to help create the political conditions to enable a comprehensive, global climate agreement to be reached. Domestic laws give clear signals about direction of policy, reducing uncertainty, particularly for the private sector.
With negotiations on a post-2020 comprehensive global deal scheduled to conclude in 2015, it is very unlikely that an agreement, with the necessary ambition, will be reached unless more domestic frameworks are in place in key countries. Sound domestic actions enhance the prospects of international action, and better international prospects enhance domestic actions.
Given this outlook, and as difficult international negotiations continue, a potential danger is that some countries might lower their long-term ambition.
At a time when the climate change debate could be undergoing such profound change, this would be ill-timed. Indeed, as in the US, now is the right time for countries to invest more in tackling climate change, in order to help expedite conditions on the ground that will enable a comprehensive global treaty to be reached.
Andrew Hammond is an associate partner at ReputationInc. He was formerly a UK government special adviser and a senior consultant at Oxford Analytica.