The clock is ticking. It will be known this week, or maybe next week, whether caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and, by extension, her cabinet will survive the scrutiny of the Constitutional Court over the transfer of Thawil Pliensri, secretary-general of Natioinal Security Council - ruled by the Administrative Court to be unfair and an abuse of authority.
Flowers placed in the lobby below the Constitutional Court offices at the Chaeng Wattana Government Complex. (Bangkok Post photo) Her fate and that of her cabinet is now in the hands of the Constitutional Court.
What is more important is the future of this country, which depends on the court’s judgement and whether it will plunge us deeper into chaos or bring about political change – that is the appointment of a neutral prime minister and the creation of an interim government. The prime minister this morning appeared at the charter court to testify in her defence. Over two years ago she replaced Mr Thawil with the then national police chief, Pol Gen Wichien Potephosree, leaving the police chief’s seat vacant for Pol Gen Priewphan Damapong, elder brother of Khunying Potjamarn na Pompetch, ex-wife of fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The prime minister defence was, reportedly, that she authorised one of her deputies to order Mr Thawil’s transfer and that she was not responsible for the decision. Three other figures were due to testify today -- Pol Gen Wichien, Mr Thawil and Senator Paibul Nittitawan, who asked the court to rule on the prime minister's status after the Administrative Court ruled against her. Most pundits, even those from the Pheu Thai camp, believe that the prime minister has only a slim chance of winning the case and is more likely to be found guilty and be forced to step aside. But the party may defy any ruling that the cabinet should also step down, and if that is the case the situation could well turn nasty. Pheu Thai Party leader and caretaker Interior Minister Charupong Ruangsuwan warned that there would be chaos if the court rules that the cabinet must also leave office. He said that the caretaker government has a "plan B" to deal with the worst case scenario. While the focus of attention of the government and most stakeholders now and in the foreseeable future has shifted to the Constitutional Court and the National Anti-Corruption Commission, the other key player in the conflict, the People’s Democratic Reform Committee, has its mind and objective firmly fixed – that is the elimination of Thaksin influence from the Thai society and reform before the election – no matter the decision of the Constitutional Court and the NACC. The hardline stance of the PDRC has rendered any attempt to work out a compromise solution to the political impasse, including the nine-point political roadmap propsed by Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajjiva, impossible. Pheu Thai’s obsession that an election is the sole key, the only way out, also stands as a stumbling block to peaceful settlement of the conflict. Defiance of the court’s ruling as urged by hardline party members and the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship is like adding fuel to the fire and could only turn an already tense situation explosive. Both the PDRC and the government appear willing to head for a showdown regardless of the possible dire consequences instead of doing the sensible thing – which is to sue for peace by taking one or two steps back and coming to sensible talks with someone acceptable by both sides mediating.