The Royal Thai Navy (RTN) believes it is on the brink of achieving an objective set more than 20 years ago. Admirals say that only the formality of a cabinet decision stands between them and three submarines. The cabinet should object to this decision. The navy's actions on subs remain opaque, unexplained and quite possibly wrong.
The current situation is supposedly this. A navy-appointed, 17-member committee studied submarines on sale around the world. The navy has never discussed funding, but the government said the committee's operations cost 200 million baht. A majority concluded that a Chinese diesel model is best suited for the country, with "superior weaponry and technology". The subs cost 12 billion baht each, meaning taxpayers are being told they must pay 36 billion baht to obtain the vessels. The government must approve the sale.
There is plenty of speculation the government will be friendly to the navy's latest recommendation. It is a military government, after all. One of its first acts after taking office was to approve a budget with that all-too-familiar rise in military spending every time the men in green take over the government. The navy has recently received sympathy for its long-standing campaign to buy and use subs.
It must be remembered, however, that the navy itself cannot buy submarines. That responsibility is in the hands of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and his ministers. This raises old and somewhat unpleasant memories. The government installed by the coup of 1991 was similarly benevolent when the RTN claimed what it most needed to defend the Thai seas and coastline was an aircraft carrier. It got one, the white elephant HTMS Chakri Naruebet. Despite being dispatched for disaster relief operations, some observers now regard the carrier and its aircraft as drifting in a state of limbo. It is difficult if not impossible to think of a different scenario for the submarines. There are no enemies in sight. If there were, they would easily spot and attack subs in the Gulf of Thailand because it is too shallow for effective submarine warfare. It takes some imagination to think of an enemy that would invade Thailand along the Andaman coast.
During the past two years, the navy has actually built a submarine headquarters. When work on the headquarters started in 2013, the navy as usual gave no details, but the government of Yingluck Shinawatra said it had authorised spending of 540 million baht. The base, now more or less completed, opened at Chon Buri's Sattahip Naval Base last year. This gave the navy the perfect justification for a small, beginners' submarine fleet: What good would a sub base be without the boats that go with it?
Ms Yingluck was always eager to feed the military machine as a way to secure loyalty from generals and admirals. But in 2011, the then-premier said "no" to a sub purchase. The RTN is an important part of the nation's defences. It would, however, be a more responsible force if it considered upgrading the current surface fleet, including strong retrograding in anti-submarine warfare — to find and sink enemy submarines, not to have its own.
If there is a compelling reason to buy the Chinese or other subs for tens of billions of baht, the navy still has not provided it to the public. "Toys for boys" is heard too often for recent military purchases — the dirigible in the South, the "magic wand" bomb detectors among them. Gen Prayut should just say "no" to the subs.