Thailand and South Korea started implementing accelerated development programmes about the same time as the United States started its urgent quest to land men on the moon. In that quest, the Saturn V rocket was the game changer, for its ability to take a heavy payload, including a moon lander and three astronauts, out of the Earth's gravity to the moon's orbit. It enabled Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin to land on the moon's surface and return to Earth safely more than four decades ago.
During those decades, South Korea found a game changer in Park Chung Hee and his single-minded pursuit of industrialisation, which subsequent South Korean leaders had followed until South Korea achieved the status of a developed economy. Thailand, on the other hand, has not found a similar game changer so far. Instead, it has been mired in a vicious circle of corruption and coups. The present government came from a military coup and has set out to suppress corruption as one of its goals. Presumably, when it turns over the reign of power to civilians in less than two years, Thailand will be out of the said vicious circle.
Is that possible? Of course, everything is possible. But is it likely? That remains to be seen. Many Thais desperately wish to believe that with absolute power at its disposal, this government could get rid of the corruption. But lately, one can detect that their faith in the government's ability to do so has been shaken by the saga of Rajabhakti Park.
It would appear that if the government does not come clean on this saga to the public's satisfaction, Rajabhakti Park will become a game changer, albeit in the negative direction -- people will start losing faith in the government and Thailand will continue to struggle on in the same vicious circle.
Suppose that the government will soon come clean on that saga and the people's faith in the government remains intact, what would be a game changer, besides the suppression of corruption, that will make Thailand achieve the status of a developed economy in the not too distant future? I believe Thailand needs two things, which may be considered as the "lexus" and the "olive tree" that Thomas Friedman made famous in his 1999 book (Interestingly, that book begins with the story of an event in Thailand.)
Instead of the struggles between the lexus and the olive tree, I would like to think that Thailand can make them work together like a pair of chopsticks using a development strategy based on two major pursuits: the lexus is the digging of the Kra Canal with development of associated industries, transportation, and other logistics, while the olive tree is the digging of farm ponds on agricultural lands throughout the kingdom that have not already been served by irrigation infrastructure from major dams and rivers.
Ridiculous? Perhaps. The Kra Canal idea has been on the books for more than three centuries and many studies have been made about it. I believe we know enough about its pluses and minuses to make it work for the development of the country, despite the naysayers who always find reasons to shoot it down, especially on security grounds when nothing else works.
I believe that corruption, poverty and inequality are much more of a threat to Thailand's security than the fact that the water in that canal will separate a few southern provinces from the rest of the country. If the government and Thais succeed in suppressing corruption and southern Thailand becomes a centre of prosperity and development, the security issue will be adequately addressed.
It is sad that with so much rain each year, Thailand has been facing serious water shortages, with the coming dry season forecast to be the worst in memory. I have said before that it is not the lack of fresh water that makes this country face a water crisis. Rather, it is the lack of brains and honesty.
Although I have not visited Rajastan, India, to see how the farm-pond schemes work there, I am convinced from reading, especially two books of the same name -- Water Wars -- written by Vandana Shiva and Diane Raines Ward that if the concept works in the semi-desert areas of Rajastan as well as in Africa and Latin America, it will work well in Thailand.
I have suggested before that if the government, if it needs convincing that the concept will work here, should set up a pilot project in the areas that are not served by irrigation. This farm-pond part of the chopstick pair not only makes development sense but also will help Thailand retain its identity formed by centuries of being an agrarian society. With that, may I wish all readers of the Bangkok Post a happy 2016.
Sawai Boonma has worked as a development economist for more than two decades. He can be reached at sboonma@msn.com.