A quick glance at the statistics for violent incidents and casualties in the strife-torn three southernmost provinces and four districts of Songkhla for last year in comparison with those of the year before should give a feel-good impression that the situation down there has improved.
According to the Southern Border Police Operations Centre, 701 violent incidents were reported last year compared to 1,210 recorded in 2014, representing a 42.1% drop. In terms of casualties, 113 people were killed and 354 injured last year compared to 232 deaths and 526 injured in the previous year.
Most of the casualties sustained by members of the security forces and civilians were caused by roadside bombs and shootings by motorcycle pillion riders. It was noticeable that major bomb attacks or raids by separatists were virtually non-existent.
Meanwhile, the forward command of the Internal Security Operations Command has claimed the "Bringing People Home" programme designed to encourage separatists and the misguided to give up their armed struggle and return to their families has succeeded in bringing over 3,000 of them home.
The perceived improvement has encouraged policy-makers in Bangkok including Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, who is in charge of security affairs, to feel upbeat that peace in the deep South may be possible this year.
But the officials may be overly optimistic. The peace dialogue process between the government and Mara Patani, an umbrella organisation representing six separatist groups, has stalled since the two sides last met on Aug 25 in Kuala Lumpur with Malaysia acting as the host.
At its press conference in Kuala Lumpur on Aug 27, Mara Patani proposed three conditions to the government: upgrading the peace dialogue process as a national agenda item; treating Mara Patani as a dialogue partner at the negotiating table; and extending legal protection to all 15 members of the dialogue team.
The government gave the proposals the cold shoulder because it doubts Mara Patani really represents the separatist groups on the ground. Also, the government does not want to treat the dialogue process as a national agenda item. In other words, there was no progress at the August peace talks and it is not known when the process will resume.
Observers have pointed out that the substantial drop in violent incidents in the restive region may be attributable to escalated military operations which have rendered the separatists unable to mount significant attacks.
It should be noted that security forces in the region have not been scaled down although most of the regular troops have been pulled out. The troops were, however, replaced by some 20,000 paramilitary rangers.
The actual number of security forces, combining the military, police, rangers and village defence volunteers, has increased from 60,000 to 80,000. If the situation has actually improved, security forces in the region should have been scaled down to cut costs which are a burden on state coffers.
While fewer violent attacks should give some cause for hope, it should be noted the cause of dissent remains as there are complaints about torture and abuses on the part of state officials. Unless the state can ensure justice, peace will prove elusive even when talks eventually resume.