Despite the reduction in transfer and mortgage fees and the easing of loan-to-value (LTV) limits, the housing market will continue to slow as consumers hold back spending amid economic uncertainties caused by US tariffs.
Surachet Kongcheep, head of research & consultancy at property consultant Cushman & Wakefield Thailand, said the two measures -- even when combined with a possible interest rate cut -- would still have little impact on boosting demand.
"Reducing spending is necessary, especially as soaring gold prices signal major economic trouble," he said. "As a result, people are spending less and the housing market will likely continue slowing this year."
He said that the Thai economy remains sluggish, pressured by both local factors and global economic concerns, which are expected to persist for one or two years.
"The government has yet to show any new strategies to handle the US tariff hike, apart from negotiations and concessions. The uncertainty over tariffs is further worrying Thai consumers," said Mr Surachet.
Between late March and late April, the residential market experienced both positive and negative factors, with the key positive being the Bank of Thailand's (BoT) easing of LTV limits, effective from May 1, 2025 to June 30, 2026.
Additionally, in early April the government announced a cut in transfer and mortgage fees for homes valued at 7 million baht or lower, effective from April 22 this year to June 30, 2026.
Meanwhile, the market was shaken by two major events -- the 7.7-magnitude earthquake that struck on March 28 this year, and the US tariff hike announced by US President Donald Trump on April 2 -- both causing a global economic impact.
The US's reciprocal tariff policy on imports from about 90 countries has put added pressure on Thailand's economy, so the country's GDP growth is expected to further weaken, according to Kasikorn Securities.
The securities firm also offered a more conservative view on the residential market, citing prolonged pressure from high competition caused by a persistent mismatch between housing supply and demand.
Due to weak demand this year, Kasikorn Securities analysed the full-year performance outlook for SET-listed developers, including Land & Houses and Sansiri.
It revised down its full-year profit forecast for Land & Houses, expecting a 14% year-on-year decrease in 2025, down by 0.3 percentage points, while Sansiri's profit is projected to decline 17%, a fall of 3 percentage points.
However, Kasikorn Securities expects the new housing stimulus measures, including eased LTV rules and the reduction in transfer and mortgage fees, to help drive demand across both high-end and affordable segments from the second quarter of 2025.
