The sentiment index for Greater Bangkok housing developers in the first quarter of 2025 fell to the fourth-lowest level ever, behind previous troughs recorded in the fourth quarter of 2011 during severe floods, the global financial crisis in 2008, and the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.
According to the Real Estate Information Center (REIC), the Housing Developer's Sentiment Index was 42.0 in the first quarter, down 8.4 points from the previous quarter, representing the fourth-lowest level since the survey began.
The floor was 37.1 in the fourth quarter of 2011 during massive floods, plunging from 57.2 in the previous quarter.
The index then rebounded to 55.8 in the first quarter of 2012 and remained above 50 until it fell to 44.1 in the first quarter of 2014 during a political crisis.
The second-lowest index was 37.3 in the fourth quarter of 2008, following the collapse of Lehman Brothers -- the fourth-largest US investment bank -- on Sept 15, 2008, widely regarded as the climax of the global financial crisis.
The third-lowest level was 41.2 in the first quarter of 2020, coinciding with the onset of the pandemic.
Since the survey's inception in the fourth quarter of 2007, the index has fallen below the threshold of 50 on 27 occasions.
A sentiment index above the median of 50 indicates developers are confident and have a positive view of the business environment.
A score below 50 reflects reduced confidence and a more negative outlook.
The longest stretch of sub-50 scores was 10 consecutive quarters from the second quarter of 2019 to the third quarter of 2021, coinciding with the first general election first since the 2014 coup and the start of the pandemic.
The second-longest period spanned seven consecutive quarters, from the first quarter of 2023 to the third quarter of 2024.
The index edged up to 50.4 in the fourth quarter of 2024 thanks to the government's property incentives.
During the 2008 global financial crisis, the index stayed below 50 for five straight quarters, from the second quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2009, before rebounding to 57.0 in the third quarter of 2009.
The index remained above 50 until the floods in late 2011.
According to REIC, the dip to 42.0 in the first quarter this year was driven by the combination of high household debt, tighter mortgage regulations, uncertainty surrounding economic policies, geopolitical tensions, and the impact of the US's reciprocal tariff policy.
These elements dampened both investor and homebuyer confidence, noted the centre.
Sentiment was surveyed in early March, prior to the earthquake that struck on March 28.
The expectations index, which reflects sentiment for the next six months, fell to 52.3, down 12 points from 64.3 in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Despite the decline, it remained above the 50 threshold, suggesting developers anticipated an improvement in the market in the second quarter, supported by several government initiatives, the easing of loan-to-value limits, and ongoing property incentives valid through June 30, 2026.