Change at the top?

After the government decided to take sweeping measures to contain the spread of Covid-19 including postponing the Songkran holiday to limit the movement of people, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha appeared on national TV in an attempt to reassure the country.

However, critics said he looked tired and battered, if not defeated. He had the look of someone who was anxious rather than full of confidence.

Covid-19 has had an adverse impact on every sector with the aviation and tourism industries worst hit by the outbreak. The government is juggling between responding to the public health crisis and tackling a faltering economy, solutions to which seem mutually detrimental.

Moreover, politicians and government officials reportedly do not see eye to eye over proposed measures to alleviate the crisis.

According to political observers, effective leadership is key to managing a crisis and if Gen Prayut is unable to steer the country through this challenge, a major political change is expected.

A source in the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) said Gen Prayut is worried about the outbreak and some key government figures are already discussing possible courses of action if things worsen and political tension escalates to a point where the coalition parties are compelled to rethink their support of the government.

One course of action might involve seeking a parliamentary vote to select a new prime minister to force the formation of a new cabinet when parliament reconvenes. According to the source, there are two possible scenarios if a new vote is agreed.

The first scenario will see Gen Prayut stepping down to make way for a new national government comprising all political parties, except the Kao Klai Party, the reincarnation of the now-dissolved Future Forward Party.

The other will see the formation of a new government with an "outsider" voted in as prime minister by parliament under the charter's provisional clause.

Under Section 272, senators can join MPs in proposing a motion to suspend the rule requiring that prime ministerial candidates come from party lists, paving the way for an outsider prime minister. The motion requires the support of at least two-thirds of both MPs and senators, or 500 of them, to suspend the rule.

According to the source, Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul is not quite ready to assume the top post. He has yet to muster support from coalition partners and his social media remarks during the coronavirus outbreak have been highly controversial.

"These two options may help reduce pressure and criticism against the prime minister [Gen Prayut]," said the source.

However, some political observers argue that for any of these scenarios to happen Gen Prayut will have to step down and the prime minister himself has given no indication he is eyeing an exit.

New party faces hurdles

Observers are still in doubt over whether Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of the Kao Klai Party or Move Forward Party (MFP), has what it takes to keep the ideology of the now-defunct Future Forward Party (FFP) alive.

The MFP is considered a reincarnation of FFP and the new home for 50 of its former MPs.

A former FFP list MP, Mr Pita pledged to continue with the FFP's policies, including pushing for constitutional amendments to give people real power so elected bodies can speak for them, ending the military draft and paving the way for military reform, and abolishing the Senate and 20-year national strategy devised by the now-defunct National Council for Peace and Order.

After the Constitutional Court on Feb 21 disbanded the party and disqualified its 11 executives over loans extended by former party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, the party was left with 65 MPs needing to find a party to join within 60 days of the dissolution. The number of MPs who applied for MFP membership was lower than projected. Earlier, Mr Pita had said 55 would apply.

Though Mr Pita is a capable and knowledgeable person, he does not compare well with Mr Thanathorn whose strong leadership skills and fighting spirit earned him strong support, according to observers.

Mr Pita, 39, holds a bachelor's in business administration from Thammasat University and a joint degree from Harvard University (Master of Public Policy) and MIT (Master of Business Administration).

However, shortly after assuming the MFP leadership, Mr Pita found himself having to hear criminal charges in connection with a flash mob that gathered at the Pathumwan Skywalk on Dec 14 last year.

The two others who also answered the charges were Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, the former FFP secretary-general, and Pannika Wanich, its former spokeswoman.

The five charges were conspiring to hold a public gathering without notifying authorities, obstructing access to and from an electric train service, failing to prevent disturbances by the flash mob participants in a public space, using a loudspeaker in public without permission and illegally holding a gathering within 150 metres of a palace.

Mr Pita described the case against him and the others as an attempt by the powers-that-be to abuse the law to obstruct new faces in politics.

Political analysts, however, do not think Mr Pita will lead MFP to victory in the next election in the same manner as Mr Thanathorn did last year when the FFP raked in more than 6 million votes nationwide.

"Many supporters are not confident and may refuse to go along with the MFP as it is now a medium or even small party, with only 50 MPs.

"Moreover, the party leader has been slapped with legal charges from the beginning. In light of this, it will be difficult for the party to move forward," a political source said.

A lack of faith all round

The government has found itself in a tight spot after going on the defensive about its efforts to combat the spread of Covid-19. Critics have been chiding state agencies tasked with the job of stamping out the virus for being out of tune for weeks, leading to the formation of the Covid-19 Administration Centre.

Critics say the communication breakdown within the government was revealed when the issue of whether or not the Sattahip quarantine centre should be closed became a subject of debate.

Interior Minister Anupong Paojinda had earlier announced that the centre was being closed as people requiring quarantine had either moved to the provinces or to other designated places.

However, Gen Anupong's announcement was overridden later in the day with government spokeswoman Narumon Pinyosinwat is insisting that the centre will be kept open.

This miscommunication has exposed the government's weakness in its ability to send out clear messages to the public, which is now taking a toll on Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's image and popularity ratings.

Political experts agree that the Prayut government has arrived at a point where it must get its act together and streamline its communication resources and tools to restore calm, especially since all information on the virus from the government has been far from synchronised and tainted by fake news. This has resulted in consumers hoarding goods and necessities.

Another problem, experts say, is how the government has been preparing its capacity and resources to handle the rising tally of coronavirus patients, which are multiplying every day.

An observer pointed out that concerns are rising about the country's available resources being overstretched, and that Gen Prayut's facial expression while delivering his televised address on Monday evening "said it all".

The premier, in his civil service uniform, looked tired and forlorn as he tried to hammer home the message of solidarity to tackle the Covid-19 outbreak.

He may have tried to rouse public sentiment when he raised his fists and declared "Thailand will prevail", but his face said otherwise.

The observer pointed out that this was Gen Prayut's first appearance on television since the Covid-19 command centre had started bringing together related agencies to combat the contagion.

However, the centre may have entered the scene rather late, especially after the government began losing points for disseminating information that was often contradictory.

The observer said if the flow of information had been streamlined sooner, the extent of the outbreak and transmission would have been better calibrated.

Now, the command centre's efficiency will be a gauge of the government's lifespan.

In a matter of weeks, the biggest political hurdle awaiting the government has switched from anti-government flash mobs to the coronavirus outbreak, though the observer said the latter may deal a greater whammy as it is directly related to the administration's own flaws.